The Australian opposition Coalition has signaled that the next federal election will focus primarily on economic issues, with Opposition Treasury spokesman Tim Wilson describing it as a “referendum on the economy and economic hope.” After spending much of the year developing policies aimed at addressing concerns that have driven support for the One Nation party, the Coalition is now preparing to shift its emphasis toward the cost of living.
Central to the Coalition’s agenda is a plan to enact significant reductions in Australia’s immigration intake, described as the largest cuts in the country’s history. The policy, led by Coalition immigration spokesman Angus Taylor, aims to reduce net overseas migration to 100,000 over the first two years of a prospective Coalition government. The proposal includes a substantial decrease in temporary migration, notably cutting student and bridging visas by 650,000 over four years, while increasing skilled visas in sectors such as health and construction. The Coalition claims these measures would improve the federal budget by $260 million, based on unreleased analysis from the Parliamentary Budget Office that assumes higher tax contributions from skilled visa holders compared to students.
Former prime minister John Howard and former immigration minister Philip Ruddock have expressed support for Taylor’s policy, highlighting its detailed approach and focus on skill-based migration. “The immigration policy strikes a sensible balance between ongoing support for strong migration and economic challenges,” Howard stated. Ruddock added that emphasizing needed skills could mitigate potential harm from the changes.
Despite this, the immigration policy has received mixed reactions within the Coalition and broader stakeholders. While many Coalition MPs are broadly supportive, business leaders have criticized the cuts. There is a broad consensus among MPs that migration is unlikely to be a decisive electoral issue, prompting the party to prioritize a credible economic platform as their primary path to electoral success.
The Coalition is also open to renewing discussions with the Labor government regarding legislation to tighten asylum claim processes. Opposition immigration spokesman Jonathon Duniam, who will exit parliament before Christmas, said the Coalition welcomes any Labor proposals aimed at fixing what they describe as a “broken migration system.” Meanwhile, the current Immigration Minister Tony Burke has refrained from bringing legislation to restrict asylum claims to a brief period without bipartisan backing, instead pursuing non-legislative measures to reduce migration numbers.
The opposition’s upcoming economic policies, expected to be unveiled early next year, will focus on lowering inflation and government debt, and supporting self-employed individuals and family businesses. Wilson emphasized that these groups have borne the brunt of rising inflation, interest rates, and regulatory changes under the Albanese government that he said have created financial pressures. Some Coalition MPs advocate for a bolder economic agenda than what has been seen from previous opposition parties, although there remain internal disagreements on how much risk to assume.
Additionally, Taylor’s proposal to index income tax thresholds to inflation has faced scrutiny, with suggestions to repackage or even abandon the policy to increase voter appeal.
As the Coalition prepares to sharpen its economic messaging ahead of the next federal election, it will also aim to provide political space for Victorian Opposition Leader Jes Wilson’s team prior to the state election in November. The party’s strategy appears focused on distinguishing itself from Labor through both economic policies and targeted immigration reforms, seeking to address voter concerns while navigating internal and external critiques.