Restart plans for the Jianxiawo lithium mine in Yichun, Jiangxi province, operated by Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd. (CATL), are facing renewed uncertainty, raising concerns about potential volatility in global lithium markets in the coming months. The mine, noted as the world’s largest single-deposit lepidolite output, accounted for approximately 4 to 5 percent of global lithium supply when fully operational.
The Yichun Ecology and Environment Bureau removed from its website a public notice that had signaled the proposed acceptance of an environmental impact assessment for CATL’s project. This development has cast doubt on the timeline for resuming production at Jianxiawo, where operations were halted in August 2025 after the expiration of the mine’s original permit. Earlier expectations had anticipated a restart in late September 2026, following CATL’s acquisition of a safety production permit in late June, a key regulatory milestone recorded on the government platform Credit China.
Although the recent regulatory delay has not yet caused significant disruption to domestic lithium carbonate prices, analysts warn that supply uncertainties could lead to increased price fluctuations in the fourth quarter of this year. Xiao Jiaying, an analyst at Shanghai-based Orient Futures, noted that multiple lithium mines are currently undergoing licensing transitions. “Together with the Jianxiawo episode, this leaves the fourth-quarter supply outlook more uncertain and will continue to fuel price swings,” Xiao said.
Lithium, sourced from hard-rock ores and salt flat brines, is processed into lithium carbonate, a critical input for downstream markets such as electric vehicles and drones. Domestic inventories of lithium carbonate have decreased to multi-year lows, according to Hangzhou-based Cinda Futures analyst Lou Jiahao. In a recent research note, Lou highlighted robust demand and forecasted a 5 percent month-on-month growth in lithium carbonate consumption. He added that, combined with current inventory depletion and unresolved supply risks at Jianxiawo, prices could experience a sharp rebound.
Lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou exchange have surged more than 30 percent this year, maintaining levels above 150,000 yuan (approximately HK$175,000) per tonne. The price recovery has benefited industry leaders, with Sichuan-based Tianqi Lithium reporting record revenue and profits for the first half of 2026, driven by strong demand for lithium-ion battery materials.
As the lithium sector navigates regulatory and supply challenges, market watchers will closely monitor developments at key mining projects like Jianxiawo, which remain pivotal for global lithium supply dynamics.