A low-profile women’s cricket match in Blacktown has cast a spotlight on the rising challenges posed by overseas prediction market platforms to Australian sport betting regulation and integrity. On Monday, the ACT Meteors faced the Hobart Hurricanes in a T20 Spring Challenge fixture at the Blacktown International Sportspark. Although only a few dozen fans attended in person, online betting activity was intense, with wagers placed through Kalshi—a US-based prediction market website—surpassing $350,000 for the match. Simultaneously, a separate game between the Sydney Sixers and Brisbane Heat at Hurstville Oval attracted nearly $476,000 in bets via the same platform.
This level of online betting on relatively modest sports events reflects the rapid expansion of largely unregulated prediction markets, many of which accept wagers on Australian sporting contests despite lacking legal authorization within the country. For example, Kalshi reported volumes exceeding $10 million in bets for various AFL matches, while competitor site Polymarket saw over $1.1 million wagered on an A-League Men’s game earlier this year.
The influx of these platforms has raised alarms among legal authorities, sports integrity experts, and law enforcement. This week, discussions were held in Melbourne under the auspices of the Australian and New Zealand Sports Law Association and Victoria Police to explore potential regulatory responses. Dr. Catherine Ordway, a sports integrity consultant, described the rapid growth in prediction market wagering as “exponential,” cautioning that the risks extend beyond traditional betting.
Unlike regulated Australian bookmakers—who face restrictions on the types of bets offered—prediction markets enable bets on myriad outcomes, including granular or exotic propositions such as the number of corners in a football match or non-sporting events like local elections or weather occurrences. Dr. Ordway noted such “prop bets” or contingencies present new vulnerabilities to manipulation, as the smaller stakes on discrete facets of a contest may be easier to influence.
These platforms often allow transactions via cryptocurrency and enforce lenient user identification policies, granting bettors a high degree of anonymity. Although Australians technically require virtual private networks (VPNs) to access these sites, regulators acknowledge the platforms remain accessible, with campaigns by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) warning consumers of the risks, including the possibility of wagering against more informed parties.
In efforts to boost their legitimacy and reach, prediction market companies have secured high-profile endorsements. Kalshi served as the official prediction market partner for this year’s FIFA World Cup, while Polymarket recently signed a reportedly $21.5 million deal with NBA star LeBron James, despite being officially blocked in Australia by the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA). Meanwhile, actor Sydney Sweeney promotes a rival sports-focused platform, Novig, positioning it as a safer alternative in an industry she highlights for vulnerabilities including insider trading and automated manipulation.
The growth of offshore prediction markets also threatens Australian sporting bodies’ revenues. The Australian Football League, for example, receives a fixed percentage of betting turnover from licensed local operators but earns nothing on bets placed through overseas platforms like Kalshi.
Dr. Ordway emphasized broader concerns about the lack of governance over these companies, many registered in jurisdictions with minimal oversight, raising questions about operator transparency, financial flows, and adherence to international standards. Alongside sports betting, the platforms have expanded into markets related to political elections and environmental conditions, such as wagers on Tasmania’s local government elections and Melbourne’s anticipated rainfall this year.
While Kalshi and Polymarket have introduced some surveillance tools to mitigate concerns about insider trading in the United States, Australian regulators and sports officials face an uphill task managing the rapid expansion of these relatively new, cross-border forms of wagering.