KIRYAT SHMONA, Israel — Once a steadfast stronghold of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel is showing signs of wavering support ahead of Tuesday’s national elections. The city, located near the Lebanese border, has endured years of conflict and upheaval due to repeated hostilities with Hezbollah, events that have strained long-standing political loyalties.

Kiryat Shmona was largely evacuated following a sustained rocket barrage from Lebanon three years ago, a response to escalating tensions after Hamas’ October 2023 attack on southern Israel. Despite a ceasefire reached in late 2024 and efforts to rebuild, the city remains only partially repopulated, with some residents estimating only half of its usual 22,000 inhabitants have returned. The once-bustling commercial areas retain a quiet, subdued atmosphere, and many shops remain closed or sparsely frequented.

Netanyahu’s leadership during the ongoing conflict, which has involved a bombing campaign and two incursions into Lebanon since 2023, has become a point of contention among some in Kiryat Shmona. The Israeli military’s actions have resulted in heavy Lebanese casualties and widespread displacement—estimated at around 1 million people—yet Hezbollah continues to launch attacks, including missile strikes as recently as March 2026, undermining perceptions of victory and security.

Several residents expressed frustration with Netanyahu, citing unfulfilled promises to neutralize Hezbollah and improve northern Israel’s safety. Eti Ben Shabat, a lifelong Likud voter aged 64, described her growing disillusionment, saying the government’s assurances felt increasingly hollow. Others, like Nissan Zeevi, an opposition candidate and activist, openly criticized Netanyahu for what they view as neglect of the north, calling for a more forceful military approach and a broader political change.

Despite this, Netanyahu is expected to retain some support in Kiryat Shmona, a city with a predominantly conservative, Mizrahi Jewish population that has historically favored right-wing parties. In the 2021 and 2022 elections, Likud secured roughly half of the city’s vote, compared with about a quarter nationally. Sami Malul, a former city councilor, defended the government’s handling of the conflict and evacuation, emphasizing the routine nature of attacks on the border town and affirming Netanyahu’s deep roots there.

However, polls suggest a notable decline in Netanyahu’s backing across northern Israel, with support dropping from near 29% before the last election to approximately 17% in recent surveys. Analysts like Nimrod Nir of Agam Labs attribute this shift partly to Likud voters gravitating toward hard-line right-wing parties that advocate a tougher stance against Hezbollah and Iran.

Voters in Kiryat Shmona now face a difficult choice, balancing family and community ties with pressing concerns about security and leadership. Ben Shabat, for one, said she plans to back Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief and a key challenger to Netanyahu, whom she regards as more trustworthy and invested in northern Israel’s welfare. Eisenkot is seen by some as a candidate promising a fresh approach and stronger defense policies, though political loyalties here remain deeply rooted and not openly debated due to close social networks.

Netanyahu made a discreet campaign visit to Kiryat Shmona last week, attending closed events at local educational institutions but avoiding public interaction downtown. In contrast, the subdued political scene reflects an electorate grappling with frustration and a desire for change, even within a traditionally loyal community. The unfolding election results from towns like Kiryat Shmona may offer key insights into the future of Israel’s northern security strategy and Netanyahu’s political fate.