Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintains a lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated second-round runoff for the country’s upcoming presidential election, according to a recent poll conducted by Nexus for lender BTG Pactual. The survey, carried out between July 24 and July 26, indicates Lula would win with 47% of the vote compared to 43% for Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

This narrow advantage is consistent with an earlier Nexus poll from July 13, which showed Lula ahead by 47% to 44%. In a hypothetical first-round scenario where multiple candidates compete, Lula leads with 42% of voting intentions, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro at 33%. Other candidates include Ronaldo Caiado with 6%, Renan Santos at 5%, and Romeu Zema with 3%.

Brazil’s electoral system requires a candidate to secure more than 50% of valid votes in the first round to avoid a runoff. Since none of the candidates reach this threshold in the poll, the top two contenders would face each other in a second round.

The Nexus survey interviewed 2,004 respondents and carries a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. With the election scheduled for October, the poll reflects the competitive dynamic between Lula, who previously served as Brazil’s president, and Bolsonaro, whose family name remains influential in the country’s right-wing politics.