As Brazil prepares for a critical presidential runoff election on Sunday, a growing segment of older voters is emerging as a potentially decisive force in the contest between leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro.

Voters aged 60 and above now comprise nearly a quarter of Brazil’s electorate, a demographic that has expanded by 74% since 2010, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This fast-growing group has gained increasing political significance, with polls indicating a shift in their support toward Lula.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who served three presidential terms and is 80 years old, has a strong record of welfare programs that have historically benefited seniors, including minimum wage increases and investments in public healthcare. Polling firm Quaest reports that Lula leads with 48% of voting intentions among senior voters, compared with 42% for Flavio Bolsonaro, whose support in this age group is lower than that of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, at a similar point in the 2022 election.

Rory Amaral, 71, and his 91-year-old mother, Aisa, represent many older Brazilians who fear potential cuts to healthcare and pensions under a Bolsonaro administration. “What I see is a fear among people over 60 that they will be left without care,” Amaral said, noting that even some right-leaning seniors share these concerns.

Despite their growing electoral relevance, experts say seniors have often been overlooked by political campaigns in the past. Lula’s campaign, however, is now actively targeting voters over 70 — a group the campaign calls the "Lula generation" — seeking to mobilize their turnout to overcome a narrow two-point gap from the first round. Efforts include launching a dedicated website to engage older voters.

Ana dos Reis, 76, from a low-income area of northern Sao Paulo, said she was initially indifferent but is now motivated by the close race. “Who knows, maybe my vote is what Lula needs to win?” she remarked.

Concerns among older voters extend beyond economic issues. Memories of the former Bolsonaro administration’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, widely criticized for its perceived failures, continue to influence voter sentiment. Some also recall the violent events on January 8, 2023, when supporters of Jair Bolsonaro stormed government buildings after his defeat, heightening fears about threats to Brazilian democracy.

Olga Darc Pimentel, 78, from near Manaus in the north, described the election as “deeply concerning” and said she plans to vote for Lula while encouraging others to do the same.

On the other hand, Flavio Bolsonaro retains a base of elderly supporters who trust in his leadership and believe he will carry forward his father’s political legacy. Isaltina Rosa Peixoto, 73, a retired civil servant who attended a pro-Bolsonaro rally in Rio de Janeiro, expressed confidence in his potential presidency. “I’m not afraid because I know he’ll do what’s best,” she said.

Flavio Bolsonaro’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment ahead of Sunday’s vote. The outcome is expected to be closely influenced by how effectively each candidate can mobilize Brazil’s expanding population of senior voters.