In the small northeastern Brazilian town of Guaribas, a long-standing bastion of support for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, signs of political unease are beginning to emerge as the country prepares for a closely contested presidential election. Lula, who first served as president from 2003 to 2010 and was re-elected in 2022, remains deeply respected in this region—where he won 94% of the local vote last year—largely due to his social welfare program, Bolsa Família, which has been credited with lifting millions out of poverty.

Guaribas, a remote community of about 4,300 inhabitants in the arid sertão of Piaui state, was an early beneficiary of Lula’s flagship cash transfer program aimed at poor households. Residents like Natalia Duarte, now 62, recall the severe hardships before his presidency, including lack of piped water and food insecurity. The welfare initiative brought significant improvements, including clean water and basic food provisions, and is widely seen as having ended hunger in the area.

Despite these gains and Lula’s historical popularity in the northeast—where he secured 69% of the vote in 2022—there is growing concern among some locals about economic stagnation, rising costs of living, job scarcity, and issues of public safety. The local economy remains heavily dependent on government assistance and state pensions, with few employment opportunities beyond these sources.

Younger voters in Guaribas express skepticism about Lula’s continued leadership, arguing for change after his multiple terms in office. Some, including business owners and younger residents, criticize what they see as an over-reliance on social programs without sufficient emphasis on economic development or job creation. Rafael Maia, 23, who belongs to a family that previously received Bolsa Família benefits, voiced his dissatisfaction, citing inflation and unmet expectations.

The election, scheduled for October 2, pits Lula against right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who is polling closely with the incumbent nationally. Bolsonaro’s father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, attracted minimal support in Guaribas in the last election but maintains a base among Evangelical Christians—a demographic growing in Brazil’s predominantly Catholic northeast. Some residents, such as shop owner Mônica Alves Duarte, oppose Lula’s positions on social issues like same-sex marriage, which also influences their voting choices.

There are disagreements over the Bolsa Família program's impacts. Critics argue that while it has alleviated poverty, it may have fostered dependency and diminished incentives to seek employment. The government plans to increase payments by 15% ahead of the election, a move that right-wing rivals denounce as politically motivated vote-buying. Supporters, including local social worker Joara Dias, point out that unemployment and lack of opportunities are the root causes of economic vulnerability, not the welfare system itself.

Education reforms under Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) have also contributed to rising prospects in Guaribas, with bursaries and affirmative action policies enabling youths to pursue higher education and professional careers. Some locals who left the town for opportunities elsewhere have returned to open businesses and promote development, inspired by benefits from Lula’s policies.

While Lula is expected to secure a commanding majority in Guaribas once more, the national outcome remains uncertain, with public disenchantment and political polarization intensifying. For many in this community, the election represents more than a political choice; it symbolizes the future direction of Brazil’s social and economic policies after decades of significant transformation under Lula’s leadership.