Lula warns of US plans to ‘colonise’ Brazil in tight election race

By the Editorial Team · Sunday, September 27, 2026

With a week left until Brazil’s presidential election, incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro remain neck and neck, with polls showing a likely runoff due to the narrow margins. The election is critical amid allegations of U.S. interference, widespread public dissatisfaction, and rising concern over violence against women, which disproportionately influences Lula’s support among female voters.

With just one week remaining before Brazil’s presidential election, the contest remains narrowly divided between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. The race has drawn international attention, with allegations of interference from the United States and former president Donald Trump’s influence underscoring the high stakes.

Lula’s campaign has accused Bolsonaro of acting as Trump’s preferred candidate, warning that a Bolsonaro victory would lead to U.S. attempts to "colonise Brazil" by exploiting the country’s natural resources and undermining its sovereignty. Lula, who addressed the United Nations General Assembly in New York last week, pledged to end violence against women, a key issue this election cycle following a record number of femicides in Brazil in 2025.

Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has gained ground in recent months, erasing Lula’s earlier polling advantage. Recent data illustrates the tight margin: the pollster Quaest puts Bolsonaro slightly ahead at 42% to Lula’s 41%, while Datafolha shows Lula with a 46% to 44% lead—both within the margin of error. A runoff is widely expected on October 25 if neither candidate secures an outright majority.

The economic backdrop complicates the race. Despite relatively strong economic indicators, including low inflation, low unemployment, and growth outpacing many G20 countries, many voters remain dissatisfied amid ongoing corruption scandals. The collapse of Banco Master, regarded as Brazil’s largest banking fraud, has cast a shadow over both campaigns. Its jailed owner, Daniel Vorcaro, reportedly maintained connections with politicians and judges across the political spectrum.

Relations with the United States have been a contentious element in the race. The Trump administration openly supports Bolsonaro, who has expressed willingness to intensify security cooperation with Washington by joining the Shield of the Americas anti-crime initiative and pursuing a free-trade agreement. However, Brazil’s economic ties with China remain far stronger. Last year, trade with China reached a record $171 billion—more than twice Brazil’s trade volume with the U.S.—and many sectors integral to Bolsonaro’s base, such as agribusiness, heavily depend on Chinese markets.

The gender gap in voter preference could prove decisive. Women constitute over 52% of Brazil’s electorate, and Lula maintains a significant lead among female voters, according to polls, while the candidates are evenly matched among men. The surge of public concern over violence targeting women, underscored by high-profile cases such as the death of law student Isabelle Caracristi in Fortaleza, has brought gender-based violence to the forefront of campaign debates.

Amid the polarized political environment, voter enthusiasm remains low, with many citizens expressing disillusionment with both candidates. Some voters describe their choice as one of selecting the “lesser evil” rather than a positive mandate, reflecting broader frustration and uncertainty as Brazil prepares for what promises to be a tightly contested election.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.