Voters in Makerfield are preparing to cast their ballots this week in a by-election that could see Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham return to Parliament and possibly position himself as a contender to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister. Burnham’s campaign has focused on appealing to the business community with promises to reduce business rates for pubs and small family-owned firms, as well as suggesting a possible review of the National Insurance Contributions (NIC) increases implemented under Labour Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

However, local business owners remain skeptical of Burnham’s pledges. Neil Evans, who owns Ashton Lock and Key, expressed concern that Burnham intends to retain Reeves as Chancellor, a move Evans believes would perpetuate policies detrimental to business investment and hiring. “Makerfield is just a stepping stone for Burnham to get into No 10 and he’s keeping Reeves, so we’re screwed,” Evans said, criticizing Labour’s approach as dismissive of business interests.

Similarly, Steven Broadhurst, who runs a newsagent in Ashton, criticized the NIC policy, citing it as a major burden on retailers. He said the combination of raising NIC rates while lowering the earnings threshold has forced businesses to cut staff due to rising costs. Broadhurst also doubted Burnham’s record as mayor would translate into better outcomes, accusing him of prioritizing tax increases, spending, and borrowing.

Pubs in the area have also felt the strain. Paul Foster, who manages The Vineyard in Ashton and the Bird I’th Hand in Hindley, pointed to the combined effects of NIC threshold cuts and increases to the National Minimum Wage as making it prohibitively expensive to hire staff. Foster described running the pubs as “a hobby” since high operating costs mean he cannot draw a salary from the business. He was critical of Burnham’s targeted attention on pubs during the campaign, viewing it as a strategic bid for votes rather than a meaningful commitment.

Mark Cowley, owner of a furniture showroom and factory near Ashton, highlighted challenges in recruiting apprentices, blaming a lack of consistent government support. Cowley noted that while successive administrations have promised funding, practical assistance has failed to materialize, further complicating efforts to address youth unemployment.

The opposition Reform UK party aims to capitalize on such frustrations with promises to overhaul business rates, reduce corporation tax, and raise VAT thresholds. Leader Nigel Farage has positioned these policies as beneficial for small business owners. Yet some remain unconvinced. Evans pointed out the presence of former Conservative ministers within Reform and viewed the party as a continuation of Conservative politics. Foster questioned the impact of Reform’s pledge to end the beer tie system, suggesting brewers would simply increase rents to compensate.

Despite widespread skepticism, there were some positive views. Travel agent Ben Hughes highlighted Manchester’s economic growth under Burnham, which has averaged 3.1 percent annually over the past decade, double the UK average. Hughes praised Burnham’s management of the city and expressed a belief that he might deliver better leadership than Starmer, though he remained open to Reform UK’s policies. Hughes also noted that, for his business, global economic factors—particularly instability related to the Middle East conflict—pose greater immediate challenges than domestic tax or rate changes.

Other local businesses echoed concerns about rising living costs affecting consumer spending. An owner of a small tyre garage in Ashton, requesting anonymity, reported a 20 percent drop in sales linked to customers’ constrained budgets amid higher fuel and living expenses.

Business owners interviewed declined to endorse any candidate publicly due to the contentious climate surrounding the election. Nevertheless, several expressed a desire for clear, decisive leadership, with some harkening back to past figures such as Margaret Thatcher, admired by Broadhurst for her straightforwardness and firm stances.

As Makerfield heads to the polls, local businesses remain cautious about the future, weighing promises against past experiences amid broader economic uncertainty.