The Palestinian political landscape is poised for potential change as plans for legislative elections move forward after more than two decades of electoral inactivity. On July 9, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree setting the date for Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections on November 28, to take place in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem.
The announcement comes amid ongoing hardship for Palestinians, including widespread destruction, displacement, economic difficulties, Israeli settlement expansion, and restrictions on political activity. Despite public skepticism rooted in repeated past election delays, recent developments suggest increased regional and international pressure to revive the political process and possibly prepare for a presidential succession following Abbas’s anticipated departure.
A poll released in mid-August by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research indicated that confidence in the elections taking place has risen slightly, with 49 percent of Palestinians expecting voting to occur as scheduled, compared to 44 percent doubting it. Confidence is somewhat higher in Gaza at 55 percent, while 45 percent in the West Bank anticipate the elections proceeding.
One of the most notable political movements ahead of the vote is the emergence of a potential broad alliance that could include Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the reformist faction within Fatah led by Mohammed Dahlan, and other groups. This coalition is reportedly in advanced discussions following meetings in El Alamein, Egypt. Dahlan, a longtime rival of Abbas, recently met with senior U.S. and Egyptian officials as well as Hamas representatives, including Khalil al-Hayya, focusing on Gaza’s post-conflict future. While no final agreements have been reached and Israeli opposition to key issues like Hamas disarmament remains an obstacle, these talks represent a significant shift in Palestinian factional relations.
Names associated with the alliance include independents such as Nasser al-Qudwa, the former Palestinian foreign minister and nephew of Yasser Arafat, as well as members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. The proposed joint slate aims to challenge Fatah’s dominance. However, some liberal Palestinian factions remain cautious about the alliance, and concerns persist over whether Hamas will accept commitments to the Palestine Liberation Organization’s (PLO) principles and existing agreements, or whether all parties would honor election outcomes.
Polling data underscores the potential impact of these developments. Support for a joint slate of national and Islamic opposition groups is roughly equal to that for Fatah’s slate, at 22 percent each. The possible candidacy of imprisoned leader Marwan Barghouti presents another dynamic, with 33 percent of respondents indicating support for him if he runs independently, overshadowing Fatah's 14 percent. Dahlan himself draws considerable backing, with 17 percent support in hypothetical independent runs. In presidential race scenarios involving Abbas, Barghouti, and al-Hayya, polls project Barghouti to lead with 54 percent, significantly ahead of Abbas’s 14 percent.
The prospect of these alliances and electoral outcomes has raised concerns within the Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership in Ramallah. In response, a PA delegation, including deputy chairman Hussein al-Sheikh and intelligence officials, traveled to Egypt, a long-standing mediator in internal Palestinian disputes. Egyptians are actively engaged in efforts to stabilize the political arena, seeking to prevent fragmentation or dominance by any single faction. Under Egyptian encouragement, the PA entered talks with Dahlan’s representatives to explore possible reconciliation within Fatah, though progress remains tentative.
Dahlan’s deputies have articulated several conditions for genuine reconciliation, including the reinstatement of expelled members, restoring dismissed officials, opening national dialogue with all factions, and holding Palestinian National Council elections. Reformist factions consider the discussions positive but are awaiting concrete action, while some voices suggest that if Abbas does not accommodate these demands, independent or opposition candidacies remain likely.
Complicating the electoral process are significant logistical and political challenges in the different territories. Gaza faces an uncertain post-war reality, Israeli restrictions, and widespread devastation that hinder election preparations. The West Bank grapples with occupation-related impediments such as checkpoints and arrests. In East Jerusalem, the Israeli government's willingness to permit polling stations remains a key unresolved issue. Some activists suggest that voters registered in Jerusalem could vote in the West Bank, but the overall feasibility depends on the political will of the PA, Israel, and the broader international community.
Underlying these practical considerations is deep uncertainty about whether Abbas and his inner circle are committed to free and fair elections or will seek to delay or undermine the process through legal or political maneuvers. The November vote is seen as a critical test of various actors’ willingness to compromise, reform, and move past years of political stagnation and fragmentation.
Ultimately, these elections serve as a barometer for the future of Palestinian politics—testing the potential for unity within Fatah, the integration of Hamas and Islamic factions into the official political framework, Dahlan’s return to prominence, and the capacity of regional actors, especially Egypt, to mediate. The outcome will have significant implications not only for governance in the West Bank and Gaza but also for relations with Israel and the international community.