China’s dependence on imported soy feed poses significant risks to its pork industry and overall protein supply amid escalating regional conflicts and climate change, according to a recent study. The report highlights vulnerabilities that could affect the affordability and availability of protein for the country’s population of 1.4 billion.
The study, conducted by Full Circle Biotechnology, a Singapore-registered firm, ranks China 21st out of 43 countries and regions on the Protein Sovereignty Index, categorizing it as “exposed” to supply risks. This rating reflects China’s heavy reliance on imported animal feed, particularly soybeans sourced from Brazil and the United States, to support its massive pork production and aquaculture sectors—both crucial protein sources for Chinese consumers.
While China cultivates almost all of its rice and wheat domestically, it imports about one-third of its protein needs when accounting for animal feed, exceeding the combined import volumes of the United States and the European Union. The country’s limited arable land and scarce water resources exacerbate this dependence. For example, the North China Plain contains 25% of the nation’s cropland but holds less than 8% of its water supply, limiting the potential for expanding domestic feed production.
From January to September of this year, China’s grain imports rose by nearly 10% to approximately 817 million tonnes, with soybeans making up 73% of the total volume. The growth of China’s aquaculture industry has further increased demand for fishmeal, a key feed ingredient, placing additional pressure on imports. Fishmeal prices have surged globally due to the El Niño weather phenomenon, which has warmed waters near Peru— the world’s largest fishmeal producer—and reduced anchovy catches.
The study contrasts China’s situation with that of Canada, which it names the top-performing country due to its extensive food production capacity and robust potash industry. Canada is the only nation classified as “sovereign” on the index. Other major economies, including the United States and the European Union, were rated as “resilient,” while many countries fell into categories labeled “dependent” or “critically exposed.”
In response to these challenges, Chinese officials have advocated for dietary shifts to lessen reliance on staple grains and pork. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported last month that per capita meat availability in China is projected to reach 72.5 kilograms by 2025, approximately 1.5 times the global average, with poultry and egg availability surpassing that of developed countries at 24.9 kilograms per person. The ministry emphasized the need for a more diversified food supply system, including the development of deep-sea aquaculture, to enhance food security and provide high-quality protein.
A ministry spokesman, Chen Bangxun, underscored the importance of optimizing arable land use and diversifying food sources to ensure the population can “have enough to eat, eat well, and eat nutritiously and healthily” amid ongoing environmental and geopolitical pressures.