The Makerfield by-election, scheduled for June 18, is shaping up to be a tightly contested race between Labour's Andy Burnham and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, according to recent polling data. A Survation poll of 369 likely voters has placed Burnham narrowly ahead with 43% support, while Kenyon trails closely with 40%. Other right-wing parties, including Restore Britain and the Conservatives, garnered 7% and 2% respectively, illustrating a fragmented right-wing vote in the Greater Manchester seat.

Former Reform MP Rupert Lowe founded Restore Britain, which is seen as drawing votes away from Reform UK. This division has led to calls from figures such as Nigel Farage for the Right to consolidate behind Reform to avoid splitting the vote and handing victory to Labour. Farage described the contest as a “two-horse race,” asserting that Kenyon is the only candidate who can prevent Burnham’s win. Similarly, some Conservative MPs have informally supported an electoral pact with Reform, though senior Conservative figures like Kemi Badenoch have dismissed the prospect of formal deals.

The stakes of the by-election have drawn sharp criticism of Burnham from political opponents on the right. Some warn that a Labour victory could pave the way for Burnham’s ambitions to lead the party and potentially seek the prime ministership. Critics have highlighted his proposals to increase taxation and suggested that his economic policies could harm the nation’s finances. Burnham, who is mayor of Greater Manchester, has sought to position himself as a candidate committed to “changing Labour” and addressing regional disparities by shifting wealth from the South to the North of England. However, his shifting stance on issues such as rejoining the EU and immigration policy has drawn scrutiny both locally and within his party.

Within left-leaning parties, the Greens have been sidelined by internal controversy and have yet to field a candidate after their previous nominee resigned over a social media controversy. Some Green Party members have suggested standing down if Burnham promotes proportional representation—a policy area where he has faced accusations of dilution.

Kenyon, a local plumber and Reform UK candidate, has faced criticism for past social media activity, including allegations of offensive remarks and associations with controversial figures, which Reform UK has sought to distance itself from. Despite these concerns, Reform UK’s recent local election performance in the constituency—where it won every ward—indicates strong support that could translate into by-election votes.

As polling numbers remain close less than a month from voting day, the division of the right-wing vote and the challenge posed by Burnham’s candidature have fueled debate over strategic cooperation to influence the outcome. With Labour aiming to regain the seat and the Right urging unity to prevent Labour's candidate from entering Westminster, Makerfield is poised to be a significant political battleground.