An analysis covering nine Premier League seasons from 2009-10 through 2017-18 suggests that alleged financial breaches by Manchester City may have cost other clubs significant revenue and altered the competitive landscape of English football. By hypothetically removing Manchester City’s results from those seasons and maintaining the existing league structure, researchers estimate that numerous teams missed out on substantial financial and sporting opportunities.
During this period, Manchester City secured three Premier League titles. Without City’s results, Manchester United would have claimed the championship in the 2011-12 and 2017-18 seasons, while Liverpool would have topped the league in 2013-14. Such shifts in outcomes eliminate iconic moments such as Sergio Agüero’s title-winning goal and Liverpool’s near-miss following Steven Gerrard’s slip, underscoring the extent to which City influenced league history in that era.
The implications extend beyond league titles to European competition qualification, which carries considerable financial rewards. Five clubs—Tottenham Hotspur, Everton, Manchester United, Arsenal, and Chelsea—were reportedly denied entry to the Champions League play-off or group stages at various times due to City’s performance. Tottenham, in particular, missed qualification on four occasions. Additionally, Arsenal faced multiple instances where they were compelled to enter the competition through play-offs rather than automatic qualification.
European qualification is highly lucrative, with group stage participation currently guaranteeing over £16 million in base payments, alongside additional prize money for match results and progression. These funds are critical for clubs’ financial health, enabling investment in players and reducing dependency on player sales. Similar revenue, though at lower levels, is available through the Europa League and Conference League.
Relegation outcomes have also been affected. Blackpool, who competed in the Premier League only in the 2010-11 season, would have finished 16th and avoided relegation if City’s results had been removed. Following relegation, Blackpool’s revenues dropped sharply, and the club descended to League Two by 2016, highlighting the long-term financial consequences of relegation on clubs.
Every one of the 36 non-Manchester City clubs participating in the league during this timeframe could arguably claim to have been negatively influenced by the alleged breaches. Premier League merit payments depend heavily on final league position, with the champion receiving 20 times the base payment and the lowest-ranked club receiving a single share. In recent seasons, one share has been valued at approximately £2.6 million, meaning that collective losses over the period may total in the hundreds of millions of pounds. Although some clubs may have benefited in isolated seasons from City’s participation, others finished significantly lower than they would otherwise have.
Several prominent clubs, including Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Tottenham Hotspur, have reserved the right to seek financial compensation should the investigating authorities confirm Manchester City’s breaches. The potential legal and financial ramifications could reshape the distribution of revenue and competitive balance across English football.
While monetary reparations may be pursued, the intangible costs to fans and players—moments lost and memories never formed—are more difficult to quantify. The investigation into Manchester City’s financial conduct continues to unfold, with repercussions that may resonate across the Premier League’s recent history.