Marine Le Pen would win French presidential election despite conviction

By the Editorial Team · Friday, July 10, 2026

Marine Le Pen is leading the polls for the 2027 French presidential election, holding around 36 percent support despite her recent conviction for misusing European Parliament funds. Her strong position suggests she remains the frontrunner, with multiple surveys showing she would defeat key rivals in a potential second round and consolidating her dominance within the National Rally party.

Marine Le Pen is projected to lead the French presidential election scheduled for 2027, according to recent opinion polls, despite her conviction for misusing European Parliament funds. Two separate surveys conducted this week indicate that the National Rally (RN) leader maintains a strong position heading into the race.

A poll by Ifop for LCI and Le Figaro places Le Pen at 36 percent in the first round, marking an increase of four points since mid-June and nearly 13 points above her result in the 2022 presidential election. Édouard Philippe, a former prime minister under President Emmanuel Macron and the leading centrist candidate, is polling at 19 percent. Other notable candidates include Gabriel Attal, another former prime minister, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who are both gaining support, standing at 15 percent each.

In hypothetical second-round matchups, Le Pen is shown to defeat each rival. She would beat Philippe 54 to 46 percent, Attal 55 to 45 percent, and Mélenchon 70 to 30 percent, according to the Ifop survey. A second poll conducted by Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL presents similar findings but with narrower margins. This survey places Le Pen’s first-round support between 34 and 36 percent, with Philippe at 20 percent, and both Attal and Mélenchon at 16 percent. In potential run-offs, she would narrowly overcome Philippe by 51 to 49 percent, lead Attal 55 to 45 percent, and surpass Mélenchon 67 to 33 percent.

The polls suggest that Le Pen’s recent legal troubles have not eroded her electoral appeal; in fact, her conviction appears to have consolidated her support base. Frédéric Dabi, director-general of Ifop, noted that Le Pen’s polling numbers have reached an unprecedented level, effectively closing the gap with Jordan Bardella, the RN’s younger rising figure who was previously seen as the party’s emerging leader. “The distinction between them no longer exists,” Dabi said, underscoring Le Pen’s continued dominance within National Rally.

These results highlight a shifting dynamic in French politics as Le Pen’s nationalist platform maintains considerable resonance with a significant portion of the electorate, even as centrist and left-wing contenders seek to challenge her position in the months ahead.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.