Australia’s immigration policy is facing significant challenges as recent government proposals aim to reduce key visa categories, but experts warn that large swings in migration levels undermine economic stability and planning. The Coalition government’s plan to cut net overseas migration (NOM) targets sharply has drawn scrutiny for its potential effects on industries and settlement services.

The Coalition has proposed reducing the humanitarian intake from 20,000 to 10,000 annually, citing difficulties in providing adequate support to refugees. Research indicates that 90% of refugee children experience poverty during their first year in Australia, highlighting shortcomings in current settlement policies. While some observers agree that scaling back the humanitarian program could alleviate these pressures, others emphasize the ongoing needs of vulnerable groups.

Temporary graduate visa holders are also a central focus of proposed reductions. The government intends to slash the number of bridging visas—currently exceeding 400,000—to just 20,000, a move criticized as unrealistic by migration experts. The backlog largely consists of onshore applicants across visa categories including student, parent, partner, and asylum visas. While recent tightening measures by both the Coalition and Labor governments aim to curb new applications leading to bridging visas, the existing backlog is expected to persist.

There are over 270,000 temporary graduates in Australia vying for a limited number of permanent residency opportunities. Although some analysts contend that earlier governments, including Labor, could have done more to address this imbalance, the Coalition’s target of reducing temporary graduates to 10,000 is viewed by many as excessive. This visa category feeds into various skilled migration streams, such as regional, state-nominated, and skilled independent visas, which the Coalition plans to expand by more than 100,000 places. This expansion suggests a need for increased migration directly from overseas, which could counter the intended NOM reductions.

The government also proposes cutting annual student visa commencements to 245,000 by 2026 and 2027, down from the current national planning level (NPL) of 295,000. However, the actual delivery of these numbers under Labor’s policies—characterized by high student visa refusal rates—has already fallen short. On this front, Coalition and Labor approaches are broadly similar, whereas policies from other parties like One Nation have been singled out as potentially more damaging to the international education sector.

The permanent migration program is expected to remain steady at 185,000 places per year. This contributes roughly 75,000 annually to NOM, a factor that the Coalition’s revisions appear to overlook in their calculations. New Zealand citizens residing in Australia are projected to increase by 45,000 to 776,600, a change that depends heavily on a robust labor market and an estimated 35,000 annual contribution to NOM, after accounting for New Zealanders who gain Australian citizenship and thus exit this count.

Additionally, working holidaymakers will continue to play a significant role, with more than 50,000 contributing to NOM in 2024-25. Migration experts anticipate this figure may decline slightly but remain largely stable in a strong employment environment. Australian citizens’ return migration trends are expected to counterbalance departures, keeping their net impact on NOM moderately negative.

Based on current analyses, the Coalition’s political target of reducing NOM to 100,000 annually in the first two years appears unlikely to be met under existing policy settings. Former deputy immigration secretary Abul Rizvi has characterized these targets as politically motivated rather than grounded in practical policy outcomes. As the government navigates competing priorities, stakeholders call for greater consistency and realism to support economic growth, community services, and migration management.