Italy’s Senate has approved a controversial voting reform bill aimed at reshaping the country’s electoral system ahead of next year’s general elections. The proposed law, which still requires approval from the Chamber of Deputies, would introduce a “majority bonus” granting additional parliamentary seats to the coalition that secures at least 42 percent of the vote, intended to ensure a clear governing majority and reduce the likelihood of hung parliaments.

The reform is being championed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her party, Brothers of Italy, as a means to deliver greater political stability by producing decisive election outcomes. Currently, Italy’s mixed electoral system includes first-past-the-post constituencies, which would be eliminated under the new law in favor of full proportional representation combined with the majority bonus.

However, analysts warn that the changes may unexpectedly strengthen the position of Meloni’s far-right rival, Roberto Vannacci, leader of the newly formed Futuro Nazionale party. Established this year following Vannacci’s split from the League, Futuro Nazionale polls at approximately 8 percent, ahead of both Forza Italia and the League, both of which are part of Meloni’s ruling coalition. Vannacci’s rising popularity is causing concern among Meloni’s allies as his platform criticizes the current coalition for abandoning right-wing principles, while advocating for closer ties with Russia and opposing support for Ukraine—stances that Meloni has explicitly rejected.

Political pollster Lorenzo Pregliasco highlights that the reform was designed before Vannacci emerged as a significant political force to the right of Meloni, potentially diluting her share of the center-right vote. Under the new rules, analysts suggest Meloni’s chances of re-election might hinge on whether she is willing to form an alliance with Vannacci, despite stark disagreements, especially over foreign policy on Ukraine. Meloni has so far ruled out cooperation with any party opposing support for Ukraine and has accused Vannacci of benefiting the left-wing opposition, though some experts see a potential shift ahead of the vote. Lorenzo Castellani, a political historian at Luiss University in Rome, noted that the revised electoral framework encourages broad coalitions, meaning Meloni could eventually include Vannacci to secure the majority bonus.

Under the new system, the winning coalition would receive up to 175 percent of seats in parliament relative to their vote share, provided they clear the 42 percent threshold. This incentivizes both the center-right and center-left blocs to form large pre-election alliances, with a unified center-left coalition currently projected to outperform Meloni’s center-right coalition if Futuro Nazionale remains outside the alliance.

Political analyst Roberto D’Alimonte observed that the reformed system clearly signals to Meloni’s camp that failure to incorporate Vannacci into their coalition could result in electoral defeat. Some ruling coalition lawmakers reportedly prefer elections under the current law, believing their prospects would be better without the reform. In response, Meloni has reportedly warned she may seek early elections from President Sergio Mattarella should the reform fail, increasing pressure on coalition partners to support the legislation.

With elections scheduled for 2027 but potentially brought forward, the outcome remains uncertain as Italy’s political landscape adjusts to the evolving electoral rules and emerging party dynamics.