German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces mounting challenges following a significant electoral setback for his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. On Sunday, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won nearly 44 percent of the vote, marking the party’s strongest result since reunification and displacing the CDU, which garnered just 17.2 percent—its worst performance in the state since 1990. This defeat ended the CDU’s two-decade dominance in the region and has intensified concerns about the party's future.
The AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt, a state with approximately 2.1 million residents and situated in the former East Germany, represents the furthest advance yet of a far-right party potentially entering government in German politics since World War II. The state premier, Sven Schulze, resigned on Monday following the election results. Analysts warn that the CDU now confronts an “existential risk,” with upcoming regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania adding pressure in the coming weeks.
Merz, who returned to politics in 2018 aiming to halve AfD support by steering the CDU toward a more conservative platform, has not seen these efforts succeed. National polls reflect his party's decline, with the CDU trailing the AfD, which is currently polling at about 28 percent compared to the CDU’s approximate 20 percent. Merz acknowledged the electoral losses as deeply troubling but declined to accept personal responsibility for the scale of the defeat, asserting that Germany faces pressing needs for fundamental reforms despite public dissatisfaction.
The CDU’s decline is part of a broader European trend of traditional center-right and center-left parties losing ground to populist movements. In eastern regions like Saxony-Anhalt, voters are less attached to historical parties and more prone to transactional voting behavior, in part due to economic and social disruptions following reunification. Some political figures and analysts within Germany question the longstanding “firewall” policy that excludes the AfD from coalition talks, arguing that it has contributed to political fragmentation and voter frustration.
Within the CDU, debate continues over the path forward. Some suggest maintaining the current coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) and pressing ahead with contentious welfare and economic reforms in hopes of regaining voter trust during a potential economic upswing. Others propose ending the coalition to allow the CDU to govern as a minority or consider leadership changes, with Hendrik Wüst, premier of the populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia, frequently mentioned as a possible successor. However, Merz remains defiant and has not indicated willingness to step down.
Public sentiment in Saxony-Anhalt reflects broader discontent with Merz’s policies, particularly cuts to social benefits and the government's support for Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion. Exit polls suggested that a majority of voters viewed Merz’s leadership as damaging to the CDU’s appeal. The election outcome has spurred renewed discussion within the party and media over Merz’s future and strategy, with some calling for a new approach to reconnect with voters and counter the AfD’s rise. Merz has vowed to improve communication and engagement but insists on continuing his policy agenda.
With two crucial state elections imminent, the coming weeks will be critical for Merz and the CDU as they seek to regain lost ground amid a reshaping political landscape in Germany.