The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) faces a significant crisis following a decisive defeat by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the regional election in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday. The results mark a historic low point for the CDU in the state and raise questions about the party’s future under Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
The AfD secured nearly 44 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, the party’s strongest showing since German reunification, while the CDU garnered just 17.2 percent, its worst performance in the region since 1990. Saxony-Anhalt, with a population of about 2.1 million, has been a traditional stronghold of the CDU, which had led the state government continuously since 2002. The scale of the loss prompted the resignation of Saxony-Anhalt’s premier, Sven Schulze, and triggered urgent crisis talks at CDU headquarters in Berlin on Monday.
Chancellor Merz, who assumed office 16 months ago and who has long pledged to reduce AfD’s influence, acknowledged the party’s decline but did not offer a clear explanation for the loss. “I just see that the two major people’s parties that we once had are in serious danger,” Merz said, referring to both the CDU and the Social Democrats (SPD). The SPD, like the CDU, has suffered eroding support in recent years, reflecting a broader European trend of declining allegiance to traditional centrist parties amid rising populist movements.
In Saxony-Anhalt and much of eastern Germany, voter loyalty to established parties has weakened, partly due to economic and social challenges following reunification. Analysts suggest that the so-called “firewall” strategy—an informal ban on cooperation with the AfD by mainstream parties—may have inadvertently contributed to the CDU’s electoral decline, as it has complicated coalition-building and governance without incorporating the far right. As a result, the AfD has been able to capitalize on voter frustration and increase its influence in regional politics.
Political observers describe several potential paths forward for the CDU. The party could continue its current coalition with the SPD, focusing on economic reforms and hoping for voter trust to recover with an economic upswing. Alternatively, the CDU might attempt to govern as a minority administration, a step considered risky but potentially allowing it to pursue policies more freely. A third possibility involves replacing Merz with another leader to revitalize the party, though critics note this would not resolve the underlying issue related to the AfD’s growing appeal.
Hendrik Wüst, premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, is often mentioned as a possible successor to Merz. However, the chancellor has shown no indication that he intends to step down amid the mounting pressure. Analysts emphasize that regardless of leadership, the CDU faces a fundamental challenge in addressing the party’s stance toward the AfD and its role in Germany’s evolving political landscape.
The CDU’s decline nationally mirrors the party’s struggles in Saxony-Anhalt, with current polls placing the CDU around 20 percent and the AfD at approximately 28 percent, making the far right the most popular party in the country. With regional elections upcoming in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the CDU’s ability to halt its downward trajectory remains uncertain.