German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is reportedly developing confidential contingency plans aimed at preventing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party from disrupting NATO’s logistical operations in the event of a Russian military invasion. The AfD, known for its pro-Kremlin stance, is expected to make significant gains in the upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, potentially gaining control over regional governments and their associated security apparatus.
Officials are concerned that should the AfD secure an absolute majority in either state, it could exercise authority over internal security, policing, and infrastructure management, enabling it to impede troop and equipment movements. Potential tactics include delaying permits, withholding police support for military logistics, and refusing to prioritize military transport on local road networks. Given Germany’s federal structure, which grants considerable autonomy to its 16 states, such obstructions could significantly slow NATO’s ability to reinforce its eastern flank.
NATO officials possess intelligence indicating that Russian President Vladimir Putin may seek to exploit political allies within Germany to complicate and hinder the alliance’s rapid deployment capabilities. A Western defense source characterized this approach as part of a broader Kremlin strategy to deepen political divisions within NATO member states rather than engaging in direct military confrontation. “If he can find the cracks inside the alliance on a political level and exacerbate those, then that’s the shortcut to breaking the alliance,” the source said.
Chancellor Merz’s administration is preparing legal and operational frameworks to override state-level decision-making in times of crisis while safeguarding critical infrastructure and personnel. Roderich Kiesewetter, a Christian Democratic Union (CDU) MP with a military background, acknowledged that these measures face constitutional challenges due to the strong independence of Germany’s regional governments. Nonetheless, efforts are underway to devise mechanisms allowing neighboring states or federal authorities to assume control over key functions if a regional government fails to support federal defense objectives.
Tobias Krull, deputy chair of Saxony-Anhalt’s parliamentary interior committee, confirmed considerations around bypassing a hypothetical AfD-led state government to ensure unimpeded military logistics. “Germany’s response to a Russian military threat cannot depend on a single state,” Krull said, emphasizing the need for federal intervention capabilities.
AfD’s rising influence, coupled with their longstanding admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, has raised alarm among German security services. The party opposed sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine and has called for negotiations to end the conflict. In response, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius indicated that AfD-controlled state governments could be excluded from sensitive intelligence briefings due to their Kremlin connections.
In recent elections, the AfD has become Germany’s main opposition party, with projections indicating it could secure about 40 percent of votes in Saxony-Anhalt’s September elections. A potential AfD majority in the state parliament would enable it to form a government without coalition partners, bypassing traditional parties’ efforts to block its rise.
The domestic intelligence service, Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (BfV), categorizes the AfD as a far-right extremist group threatening democratic order, a designation the party is contesting in ongoing legal proceedings.
The broader NATO reinforcement plan, known as the Reinforcement and Sustainment Network (RSN), depends heavily on cooperation from German states to facilitate the swift movement of troops and equipment through German territory toward Eastern Europe. This complex operation involves diplomatic clearances, local authority support, and coordination with private contractors and rail operators, typically requiring five to six weeks.
Western defense officials warn that the RSN could face significant challenges, including hybrid threats such as cyber attacks and sabotage, compounded by political uncertainty at the state level. This could severely hamper NATO’s ability to respond promptly to a Russian incursion.
Attempts to reach the AfD for comment on these developments were unsuccessful. The German interior and justice ministries declined to offer statements regarding the federal government’s contingency planning.