As summer temperatures have soared in parts of the United States, many have turned to traditional sources like the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac for long-term winter weather forecasts. Both publications, with histories stretching back to the 18th and 19th centuries respectively, continue to offer predictions on seasonal climate patterns, claiming accuracy rates around 80%. However, meteorologists and climate scientists remain skeptical of these assertions, citing a lack of transparency and scientific rigor.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac, established in 1792, and the Farmers’ Almanac, founded in 1818 and set to cease publication after its 2026 edition, both rely on proprietary forecasting methods they say combine climatology, meteorology, and solar science. These methods include analysis of sunspot activity, tidal influences of the Moon, and planetary positions. Both almanacs maintain that their formulas, developed centuries ago, have been refined with the aid of modern technology but do not disclose detailed methodologies.

Experts involved in weather forecasting emphasize the advances made in short-term and seasonal weather prediction based on observational data and computer modeling. J. Marshall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia, noted that contemporary models have significantly improved the reliability of forecasts related to hurricanes and climatic events such as El Niño. Nevertheless, he pointed out that many people still rely on folklore and traditional almanacs for seasonal guidance.

Heidi Stonehill, executive editor of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, said the publication’s goal aligns with modern meteorological efforts: to provide useful guidance for individuals and communities on likely weather trends. She highlighted the almanac’s broader scope, which includes information on sunrise and sunset times, important calendar dates, and gardening advice alongside weather outlooks.

Corey Davis, assistant state climatologist at the North Carolina State Climate Office, acknowledged that current almanac forecasts appear to incorporate some scientific factors more than in previous decades. He appreciated the inclusion of El Niño considerations in upcoming winter outlooks by both almanacs. Davis also observed that many families keep physical copies of the almanacs as cultural artifacts, reflecting the longstanding place these publications hold in public life.

Seasonal weather forecasting typically involves complex climate models that analyze interactions between temperature, precipitation patterns, and slower-moving climate drivers. Peter Goble, assistant state climatologist at Colorado State University, expressed concern over the almanacs’ secretive formulas, stressing the importance of transparency in scientific forecasting. He also noted that conventional weather forecasts generally maintain accuracy only up to about two weeks, while seasonal predictions involve assessing probabilities rather than exact outcomes.

The almanacs’ reported success rates of roughly 80% have drawn skepticism from meteorologists. Stonehill explained that the Old Farmer’s Almanac measures accuracy by comparing forecasted temperature and precipitation trends against actual regional data, averaging these metrics to derive an overall figure. Yet, experts caution that these figures reflect broad tendencies—such as general warmth or cold—not specific weather events.

Goble conducted a comparative review of Farmers’ Almanac winter forecasts from 2019 to 2024 alongside official National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center outlooks. He found that the Climate Prediction Center’s forecasts performed significantly better but acknowledged the inherent challenges in seasonal forecasting. Shepherd criticized the almanacs’ generic predictions, calling statements like “cold and snowy winter” statistically typical for certain regions rather than evidencing precise forecasting. Similarly, meteorologist Matt Lanza has referred to reliance on these almanacs as akin to consulting a psychic for meteorological insights.

While the Old Farmer’s Almanac and Farmers’ Almanac remain popular cultural references, especially for those seeking long-term weather perspectives and supplemental information on tides and lunar phases, meteorologists regard their weather predictions as insufficiently scientific and less reliable than modern forecasting methods.