Oil exports from the Middle East have shown a notable recovery in September, nearing pre-conflict levels despite ongoing tensions in the region, according to industry analysts. Daily shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime choke point, have increased to an estimated 10 million barrels, up from significantly lower volumes earlier this year when Iran’s closure of the strait disrupted flows.
Data compiled by Kpler, a firm specializing in tracking oil tankers, indicates that in addition to shipments passing through the strait, approximately 6 million barrels per day of crude have been exported through pipelines and ports bypassing the waterway. Before the outbreak of hostilities in late February, around 19 million barrels of crude oil traversed the region daily via both the strait and alternative routes.
While precise figures remain difficult to verify due to tankers frequently disabling tracking transponders to avoid detection, expert consensus points to a meaningful rise in exports this month. The increase is most evident in shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran continues to target despite a U.S.-led military effort to secure the passage. This protection has bolstered confidence among major producers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, encouraging them to ramp up exports.
“Export volumes are growing as shippers regain confidence,” said Eugene Gholz, associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame, who studies conflict dynamics in the area. U.S. President Donald Trump and administration officials have repeatedly asserted that the strait remains open and operational, a position supported by efforts from the U.S. Central Command to provide naval escort and security.
Some analysts suggest the recent export rebound reflects mounting pressure on Iran, which has been increasingly constrained by U.S. sanctions and military blockades that have curtailed its oil shipments. Martin Navias, senior research fellow at King’s College London, noted that these measures appear to have limited Iran’s influence over the strait.
Nevertheless, despite the improved volumes, oil prices remain elevated compared to pre-war levels, continuing to impact consumers globally. According to Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, the global supply-demand balance remains tight, with current production not fully meeting worldwide needs.
Comparisons of tanker tracking data vary. Kpler’s estimate of 10 million barrels per day contrasts with figures from TankerTrackers.com, which calculates about 7.4 million barrels daily through the strait this month. In prior months, estimates ranged between roughly 5.5 million and 6.4 million barrels per day during August, still substantially below prewar flow of approximately 16 million barrels daily through the strait alone.
Security risks continue to complicate the situation. The International Maritime Organization reported that since the conflict began, 85 ships have been attacked around the strait, resulting in 24 fatalities. The organization’s secretary-general, Arsenio Dominguez, has stated that the strait cannot be considered fully safe for navigation.
U.S. military officials have highlighted the volume of oil shipped since the conflict escalated, but their figures have sparked debate in Washington. Admiral Brad Cooper, head of Central Command, claimed in a recent statement that about one billion barrels had passed through the strait over the past several months—an amount equivalent to pre-conflict daily volumes if spread over two months. However, Central Command representatives have declined to clarify specific timeframes or provide detailed methodology, prompting skepticism from some congressional Democrats and intelligence analysts who question the accuracy of these claims.
A Central Command spokesperson defended the figures, emphasizing that data are derived from multiple sources including military monitoring, industry information, and reports from Gulf states. In recent weeks, the military has reported that daily flows have reached over 13 million barrels through the strait.
Despite continued challenges, the rebound in Middle Eastern oil exports through key maritime and terrestrial routes marks a significant development in global energy supply amid ongoing regional hostilities.