Concerns about a potential new migration crisis impacting the United Kingdom have been challenged by experts despite recent disturbances at the border of Ceuta, a Spanish enclave in North Africa. The chaotic scenes, which were widely shared on social media, prompted several populist politicians across Europe to describe the situation as an “invasion.”

Figures from the Reform UK party were among those suggesting that a significant number of migrants arriving in Ceuta intended to continue their journey to Britain. Nigel Farage, a prominent party member, warned that many migrants would soon attempt to cross the English Channel illegally. Similarly, Home Secretary Suella Braverman and former Cabinet minister Robert Jenrick echoed claims that the migrants’ ultimate destination was the UK. On Saturday, Reform UK’s home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf visited Ceuta and posted on X that he had spoken with several individuals who expressed a clear intention to reach Britain.

However, these assertions have been contested by migration experts. Myriam Cherti, a senior researcher at the University of Oxford’s Global Exchange on Migration and based in Rabat, Morocco, said the number of people remaining in Ceuta with the goal of reaching mainland Europe remains uncertain. She emphasized that the UK does not appear to be a primary destination for many arriving in the enclave, noting that most are Moroccan nationals.

Cherti further explained that Spain, where Moroccans constitute the largest immigrant group, is a far more common destination due to existing cultural ties and family connections. Since Ceuta is separated from mainland Spain by sea, migrants face an additional crossing to reach European soil. According to her research, those Moroccans who do move beyond Spain tend to prefer destinations elsewhere in mainland Europe rather than the United Kingdom.

The recent surge in arrivals at Ceuta’s border has reignited debate over migration policy and border control, but experts urge a nuanced understanding that distinguishes between political rhetoric and the complex realities of migration patterns in the region.