The number of new jobs projected for Australia’s major mining projects has dropped to its lowest level in seven years, despite record levels of planned capital investment across the sector. According to data released by the Australian Resources and Energy Employer Association (AREEA), 112 major projects are currently underway—16 more than in the previous year—but the workforce requirements for these projects have declined significantly.

The survey forecasts demand for 19,549 additional workers, representing a 12 percent decrease from last year’s figure and a more than 30 percent decline compared with the 28,260 jobs estimated in 2023. This is the lowest forecast since AREEA began its annual survey in 2019. Steve Knott, AREEA’s chief executive, noted that while investment levels remain exceptionally high—projected at a record $143 billion—the majority of spending is directed toward sustaining existing operations rather than expanding the workforce.

Of the projects reported, 24 are continuity developments that do not require new workers, and 32 expansion projects collectively add about 1,800 jobs. The bulk of new employment opportunities are expected from 69 new projects and 11 reactivations, which together account for approximately 17,800 roles.

Knott highlighted that while exploration activity is increasing, driven in part by strong prices for gold and copper, it often takes a decade or more for discoveries to transition into operational mines. He emphasized the need for continued government incentives to support exploration and streamlined approval processes to ensure discoveries can be developed into projects that create jobs in the longer term.

In terms of timing, roughly one in six of the new roles—about 3,198—are expected to be filled by the end of 2027, with the majority, around 15,000, needed between 2028 and 2030. The forecast includes a wide range of occupations, with demand for 7,371 plant operators, 2,430 heavy diesel fitters, and 3,545 engineering, technical, and geology professionals.

A recent High Court ruling in New South Wales has complicated the outlook for coal projects, with judges blocking the expansion of a mine on the grounds that the environmental impact of exported coal burned overseas had not been sufficiently considered. While the decision applies to NSW law, Knott expressed concern that investors may view this as a precedent that could increase regulatory risk nationwide.

Coal and gas projects make up 23 of the recorded projects and represent over $89 billion—more than 60 percent—of the capital investment pipeline. The Albanese government has stated that the ruling does not impact federal approvals and has urged that it remain that way to maintain investment confidence.

The regional breakdown of projects shows Western Australia leading with 45 projects requiring 8,177 workers, followed by Queensland with 22 projects and 4,102 jobs, and NSW with 14 projects needing 2,372 workers. The Northern Territory and South Australia combined have 23 projects needing 3,546 new workers, while Victoria and Tasmania anticipate 1,352 jobs from their projects.

Mining accounted for 96 of the projects and nearly 18,000 new roles. The number of gold projects increased from 16 to 22, now requiring 4,210 workers, while copper projects rose from nine to 16, with a workforce need of 2,684.