Less than six months ahead of the New South Wales state election, new polling data reveals a significant shift in voter preferences, with the One Nation party matching the Labor Party's first preference votes at 29 percent each. The survey, conducted between August 5 and 12 and commissioned by the Minerals Council of Australia, indicates a substantial rise in support for One Nation compared to the 18 percent the party secured in the 2023 state election. In contrast, Labor’s vote share has declined from 37 percent during the last poll, while the Coalition—the Liberals and Nationals—has seen its support fall more sharply, now at 18 percent compared to over 35 percent in 2023.

The data comes as Chris Minns, the current Labor leader and Premier, prepares to defend his minority government ahead of the March election. Despite the challenges, Minns holds the highest net favourability rating among a group of prominent politicians, at 11 percent, surpassing figures such as Pauline Hanson (-8), Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (-22), and Energy Minister Angus Taylor (-10). The poll sampled 1,000 voters online across New South Wales.

One Nation’s surge appears to draw support from both Labor and the Coalition, underscoring increasing volatility within the state's political landscape. Minns has publicly criticized One Nation, particularly responding to comments from Senator Pauline Hanson, characterizing the party’s stance as exclusionary.

The survey also explored public opinion on uranium mining in New South Wales, a contentious issue in the state’s energy and environmental policy debates. Currently banned in NSW, uranium mining is allowed only in the Northern Territory and South Australia. The poll finds that 67 percent of respondents would support lifting the NSW ban if it contributed to lowering emissions and combating climate change, with 28 percent expressing strong support and an additional 39 percent somewhat supportive.

This reflects ongoing political maneuvers, as the NSW upper house passed legislation in May to overturn the uranium mining prohibition despite opposition from Labor and the Greens. The bill is expected to be introduced in the lower house imminently. John Ruddick, a state Libertarian MP who introduced the legislation, expressed confidence that the ban would eventually be lifted, emphasizing uranium’s economic potential and its role as "the mining of the future."

Public backing for uranium mining appears conditional. More than half of respondents (52 percent) favor mining conducted under regulatory standards similar to other jurisdictions that permit it. Additionally, the survey shows broad support for uranium’s use in medical applications, such as nuclear medicine, with 75 percent in favor, while support drops to 52 percent when considering nuclear energy generation.

Tania Constable, CEO of the Minerals Council of Australia, interpreted the results as evidence that NSW voters are prepared for a frank discussion about uranium’s role in achieving global zero-emissions energy security.

In terms of voter priorities, the cost of living remains paramount, with 55 percent of respondents naming it as their chief concern. Other issues, including development and population growth (8 percent), health (6 percent), and crime (5 percent), ranked considerably lower on the list of urgent voter worries.