Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing mounting domestic opposition amid ongoing negotiations for a trade agreement with the United States that could place India at the center of American efforts to reroute agricultural exports displaced by the US-China trade conflict. The proposed deal has sparked protests from thousands of farmers, particularly from the northern state of Punjab, who warn that increased imports of cheaper American agricultural products risk undermining their livelihoods.
On Tuesday, large groups of farmers marched toward Delhi, opposing what they described as a “secret” trade understanding with Washington that could open Indian markets to imports such as soybean oil, feed grains, and dairy goods. Authorities responded by blocking major highways to prevent the demonstrators from reaching the capital. The protests underscore the political challenges Modi confronts as he seeks to deepen ties with the US while managing domestic concerns and navigating the broader strategic complexities of India’s relationship with China.
The Trump administration has been actively seeking alternative buyers for its agricultural exports after China sharply curtailed purchases of US soybeans in retaliation to American tariffs. India has emerged as a critical target for expanded market access, but the internal backlash highlights the difficulties New Delhi faces in balancing its economic interests between the superpowers.
Experts note that Modi is contending with what has been described as a “perfect storm” of geopolitical tensions and domestic unrest. The US push for a trade deal coincides with broader American demands, including pressure on India to reduce its dependence on Russian energy imports and to assist US-led efforts to decouple critical supply chains from China. Despite ongoing negotiations since early 2025, a formal agreement remains elusive, complicated by overlapping trade investigations and legislative initiatives in the US—such as a recently proposed Senate bill that could impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries continuing to purchase Russian energy.
Earlier this year, Washington and New Delhi outlined a trade framework linked to the removal of 25% tariffs on certain Indian imports connected to Russia oil purchases. However, India delayed finalizing the deal after the US Supreme Court ruled that the global tariffs imposed under the Trump administration were unlawful, stalling further progress during subsequent negotiation rounds.
Diplomatic engagements continue, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meeting Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in Manila ahead of a Quad foreign ministerial summit. Both officials underscored the importance of completing the “interim trade deal,” which Rubio described as “almost complete.” The Quad, comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia, serves as a platform for countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Rubio and Jaishankar also discussed developments in the Middle East.
India’s strategic autonomy remains a pivotal concern amid these pressures. Washington’s trade and energy policies have inadvertently elevated Indian energy costs and complicated India’s regional strategy, particularly following US military strikes near Iran’s Chabahar Port—an infrastructure project key to India’s access to Central Asia and countering Chinese dominance in regional trade networks.
As the US prepares to host Chinese President Xi Jinping in September, Modi’s government continues to advocate for India’s role as an essential partner in Washington’s broader geopolitical approach to China. Yet, Modi faces increasing strain at home as Indian farmers confront the immediate economic repercussions of the US trade conflict and the broader recalibration of global supply chains driven by American policy ahead of critical midterm elections.