The Philippine Senate has ruled that only senator-judges actively participating in Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio’s impeachment trial will be counted in determining the necessary two-thirds vote for conviction. This decision, announced on Wednesday, effectively lowers the number of affirmative votes required from 16 to 14, a move that could heighten the stakes of the highly contentious case.
Duterte-Carpio’s impeachment trial centers on allegations that she made serious threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his family, and that she misappropriated approximately US$10 million in confidential funds during her tenure as education secretary from 2022 to 2024. If convicted, Duterte-Carpio would be barred from holding public office and thus prevented from pursuing a presidential bid in the 2028 election.
The ruling came amid the absence of four senator-judges from the proceedings: Rodante Marcoleta and Jinggoy Estrada are detained on plunder charges; Ronald dela Rosa remains at large under an International Criminal Court arrest warrant; and Loren Legarda is on extended medical leave abroad. The Senate court decided these absences should not factor into the total needed for the two-thirds majority, a position supported by testimonies from retired Supreme Court justices.
Thirteen senators supported the adjustment while one dissented, and six senators perceived to be aligned with Duterte-Carpio did not participate in the decision-making process. The ruling clarifies the application of the constitution’s two-thirds requirement in the context of an incomplete trial body.
Legal experts viewed the ruling as a practical interpretation aligned with the Senate’s current composition. Paolo Tamase, assistant professor at the University of the Philippines College of Law, praised the decision for allowing accountability to proceed despite unusual circumstances, though he noted that the possibility remains for absent senators to return before the final verdict, potentially altering vote calculations.
Political analysts suggest the adjustment shifts the prosecutorial strategy from overcoming a steep numerical hurdle to focusing on swaying undecided senators. Clegre Arguelles, founder of Momentum Research, said securing a conviction with 14 votes is now “considerably more feasible,” especially with the new threshold already endorsed by 13 senators.
However, some observers caution that members aligned with Duterte-Carpio may intensify efforts to delegitimize the trial in public discourse. Jean Encinas-Franco, from the University of the Philippines Diliman, remarked that the lowered threshold “means it has become easier to convict” but also predicted that the minority faction could increasingly challenge the process’s legitimacy.
Concerns have also been raised about how the ruling might impact public trust. Arjan Aguirre, assistant professor at Ateneo de Manila University, described the move as “risky yet inevitable,” warning it could undermine confidence in the trial’s outcome. Aguirre pointed to the fact that some senators inclined towards acquittal face their own corruption charges, which might lead the public to view an acquittal as motivated by self-interest rather than principle.
Furthermore, the inability of senators to abstain during the final verdict leaves unexcused absences as de facto votes against conviction, potentially allowing absent senators to further disrupt the process by simply not attending.
The Senate’s adjustment of the conviction threshold thus sets the stage for a more intense and closely watched phase of Duterte-Carpio’s impeachment trial, with significant legal and political implications as the case moves forward.