The rate of mail ballot rejections due to late arrivals has increased in primaries this year and in general elections last year across approximately a dozen states, raising concerns about the U.S. Postal Service’s ability to reliably deliver ballots ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. Data from states including California, Colorado, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Washington reveal growing challenges in timely mail delivery for ballots in key battleground races.

In Wisconsin’s spring primary, late-arriving ballots accounted for roughly 5,000 rejected mail votes, making up 78 percent of all discarded ballots—more than double the number from the previous year’s primary. Michigan also saw a sharp increase, with over 10,000 mail ballots disqualified for arriving after the 8 p.m. deadline on Election Day, nearly twice the volume compared to the prior primary. Washington reported a rise from about 16,000 to over 20,000 late-arriving ballots in the most recent cycle.

These increases coincide with ongoing disruptions within the Postal Service, which faces significant budget shortfalls and operational changes. Efforts under a 10-year plan to address financial challenges have included consolidating processing centers and extending delivery standards for first-class mail from three to five days. Additionally, a new postmarking system that stamps mail upon arrival at regional centers rather than when first mailed has contributed to longer processing times, complicating ballot validation in states that use postmarks as a cutoff.

The Postal Service has defended its reliability, stating that more than 95 percent of mail ballots typically arrive on time and urging voters to mail ballots early to avoid delays. After the surge in mail voting during the 2020 pandemic election, the agency formalized procedures prioritizing election mail and committed to maintaining those protocols for federal elections through 2028. Experts note that these measures have helped in even-year elections but that delays appear more pronounced in odd-year and primary contests, partly due to the broader slowdown in mail services nationwide.

The increase in rejected ballots adds to a tense political environment, with former President Donald Trump and his allies seeking changes to the Postal Service’s role in elections. A presidential executive order that would require states to share voter information with the Postal Service and allow the agency to block mail ballots in non-compliant states has faced legal challenges. A federal judge recently blocked the plan, citing concerns it could cause chaos with election rules being altered fewer than 70 days before voting. The administration is appealing the ruling.

Election officials in affected states are reacting by expanding alternatives to postal voting. Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold has nearly doubled the number of ballot drop boxes since 2018 to mitigate risks of postal delays. In Washington state, a universal mail-voting state, officials report a growing preference for drop boxes over the Postal Service amid concerns about delivery reliability. Utah election official Ricky Hatch noted that guidance to voters has shifted from submitting ballots by Election Day to recommending ballots be mailed at least a week in advance or, preferably, deposited in drop boxes.

Local election administrators have also observed unusual surges in late ballots. In Wisconsin’s Dane County during the April Supreme Court election, hundreds of ballots arrived after deadlines, a departure from previous elections. Surveys of county clerks in Wisconsin indicated that two-thirds saw mail delivery issues in that race. Officials across several states now advise voters to submit ballots early or utilize drop boxes to ensure their votes count.

While mail ballots still represent a small fraction of total ballots rejected, the trend has heightened election officials’ concerns as they prepare for the fall midterms amid ongoing Postal Service challenges and political disputes over mail voting.