The number of births in England and Wales could decline by more than 75,000 annually if government plans to expand legal rights for unmarried cohabiting couples proceed, according to a report by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ). The think tank raised concerns that the proposals could accelerate a demographic downturn, warning that deaths may soon outnumber births and intensify pressures on the country’s workforce and pension system.
The CSJ’s analysis argued that if the measures currently under consultation had been in place over the past 15 years, birth rates would have fallen by around 75,000 fewer babies each year. The report connected this trend to reforms termed “marriage-lite,” which would grant cohabiting couples, notably those living together continuously for three years or sharing a child, enhanced rights akin to those enjoyed by married couples in cases of separation.
The think tank highlighted potential wider impacts of the policy, including a further reduction in the already low marriage rate and increased relationship breakdowns. Drawing parallels to Finland, which introduced similar reforms, the CSJ noted a pronounced drop in marriage rates and fertility there. Sophia Worringer of the CSJ stated, “The lesson from Finland is clear: marriage fell, cohabitation declined and fertility dropped. Andy Burnham should scrap any plans to follow its example.”
Polling by JL Partners indicated public skepticism toward automatic marriage-style rights for cohabiting couples, finding nearly 60% of UK adults believe couples should decide independently whether to marry. A majority also opposed granting legal claims to savings, property, or pensions based solely on cohabitation.
The proposal stems from Labour’s manifesto commitment to enhance protections for women in cohabiting relationships. The government’s consultation outlines giving couples in England and Wales who live together continuously for three years or more, or who cohabit and have a child, additional legal rights in the event of a breakup. However, officials emphasized that these rights would differ from those of married couples, with no automatic equal division of assets.
The CSJ report estimated that if England and Wales had implemented reforms similar to Finland's starting in 2011, there could have been more than 111,000 fewer marriages between 2012 and 2023 and nearly 25,000 fewer in 2023 alone. The fertility rate in Finland was reported to have declined by an estimated 21% by 2018 compared to similar countries without such reforms.
Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy underscored the importance of the family unit in societal strength, acknowledging the realities of cohabitation while warning against policies that may inadvertently weaken marriage. “Strong families are built on choices people make and keep,” he said.
The Ministry of Justice responded by stating that the framework under consideration aims to fill a legal gap faced by more than 3.5 million cohabiting couples who currently lack clear rights. The government highlighted that unlike marriage, the proposed rights would not enforce an automatic 50:50 division of assets upon separation. The consultation remains open as officials review public feedback before final policy decisions are made.