More than 50 million Americans have cast early ballots ahead of the midterm elections set for Tuesday, marking a significant increase in voter participation compared to the 2022 midterms. Data compiled by the University of Florida indicates that as of Saturday morning, early votes surpassed 50.5 million nationwide, nearly 5 million more than reported at the same stage in the previous midterm cycle.
This surge in early voting is occurring amid a number of tightly contested races that will determine control of both chambers of Congress. Current trends suggest that voter enthusiasm is strongest among Democrats, with 10.7 million registered Democrats having voted early compared to 7.8 million registered Republicans, based on state-reported party affiliations. While these figures do not directly translate into the final vote outcome, recent polling has shown considerable dissatisfaction with former President Donald Trump and close contests in traditionally Republican-leaning states.
The competitive landscape has broadened, with Democrats targeting victories in conservative bastions such as Texas, Alaska, and Kansas. In Texas—central to Democratic hopes—over 7 million early votes have already been cast, an increase of 1.5 million from the 2022 midterms. Harris County, which includes Houston and historically leans Democratic, recorded 862,700 early voters as of Wednesday, a substantial rise from 564,500 at the same point two years ago.
The uptick in turnout in Harris County follows recent elections where Democrats secured meaningful margins; Vice President Kamala Harris defeated Trump there by nearly 6 percentage points in 2024, while Democratic Senate hopeful Colin Allred won the county by about 11 points against incumbent Senator Ted Cruz. This year, Texas features high-profile races including Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican facing Democratic challenger James Talarico, and Governor Greg Abbott seeking re-election against Gina Hinojosa. The Senate contest has attracted significant campaign spending as Republicans strive to maintain their hold on a state Democrats have not won statewide in over 30 years. Trump has campaigned in Texas multiple times in recent weeks to support Republican candidates.
Early voting has also increased in other battlegrounds with competitive Senate races. In South Carolina, where Trump carried the presidential vote by a wide margin in 2024, early turnout is up 83% compared with 2022. Kansas shows a 34% rise in early voting in another unexpectedly close Senate contest, while Maine and Michigan report increases of 44% and 32%, respectively.
The midterms will shape the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate for the remaining two years of President Joe Biden’s term. Voters are casting ballots amid concerns over inflation, rising costs of essentials like food and gasoline, international tensions around the Iran conflict, and issues of government integrity.
Trump, dealing with low approval ratings, has intensified efforts to support struggling Republican candidates by holding rallies across states previously considered secure Republican territory. His campaign style has included controversial remarks about candidates and contentious statements on economic issues such as rising fuel prices, which he has downplayed in favor of criticizing fossil fuel company profits. Addressing a rally in Florida on Friday, Trump acknowledged the demanding nature of his campaign schedule, saying, “Twenty-eight days of this crap in a row is a lot.”