Most Americans expect next month’s midterm elections to be conducted fairly, but a significant majority express doubt that former President Donald Trump would accept a Republican loss, according to a recent nationwide poll. The survey, conducted from October 9 to 13, found that roughly seven in 10 U.S. adults lack confidence in Trump’s willingness to concede if the GOP loses control of Congress.

The skepticism extends across party lines. Among Republicans, 36 percent said they are not confident Trump would accept defeat, while 77 percent of independents and 94 percent of Democrats shared that doubt. Despite these reservations, perceptions about the fairness of the elections are broadly consistent among party affiliates, with 70 percent of Democrats and 67 percent of Republicans expressing confidence that the midterms will be free and fair.

Trump has a long history of questioning the integrity of elections. In a February interview, he stated he would recognize results only if the elections were “honest,” and in recent years, he has repeatedly made unsubstantiated claims that he won the 2020 presidential election and received more votes than officially reported in 2016. Federal courts and independent investigations have found no evidence of widespread fraud or significant voting irregularities.

Some local election officials have voiced concerns about possible disruptions, such as the seizure of ballots or the presence of federal agents at polling places, reflecting tensions fueled by Trump’s rhetoric. In a January interview, Trump said he regretted not having military forces take control of voting machines in 2020, signaling his openness to intervention in election processes.

The poll also revealed Americans’ expectations regarding the upcoming House elections: 35 percent anticipate a Democratic victory, 16 percent expect Republicans to retain control, 28 percent view the race as a toss-up, and 21 percent are uncertain.

Confidence that Democratic leaders would accept an electoral loss was higher, with 61 percent expressing trust. This confidence diverges sharply along party lines—88 percent of Democrats versus 36 percent of Republicans said they believed Democratic officials would accept defeat, while 58 percent of independents shared that view.

While 60 percent of respondents said they are confident the midterms will be conducted fairly, independents showed more divided opinions, with 51 percent expressing confidence and 47 percent expressing doubt. Similarly, 65 percent overall expressed faith that votes will be accurately counted, largely unchanged from previous election cycles. Democrats reported higher confidence levels (76 percent) compared with Republicans (68 percent), with independents at 55 percent.

The poll also found that Republicans’ confidence in vote counting has increased since the 2024 election, when a lower share expressed trust. After the 2024 election, a majority of Republicans acknowledged the legitimacy of Trump’s loss, with 77 percent stating there was no substantial evidence of voter fraud.

Undecided voters and those who do not plan to vote were among the least confident about Democratic leaders conceding defeat, with only 37 percent expressing confidence in Democrats and 16 percent in Trump to accept losses.

The poll was conducted by Ipsos through its KnowledgePanel, which recruits participants randomly by mail to reflect a representative sample of U.S. households. The overall margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.