Most Early Voters in 2026 Are Democrats

By the Editorial Team · Sunday, October 18, 2026

Early voting data shows registered Democrats leading significantly over Republicans in key states ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, including competitive Senate races in Michigan, Iowa, and Texas. This Democratic early voting advantage may indicate higher enthusiasm and could impact Senate control, though analysts caution it does not guarantee final election outcomes.

As Americans begin casting their ballots ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, early voting data reveals a significant advantage for registered Democrats across several key states. According to state election records compiled by TargetSmart and NBC News through Thursday, 54% of early voters identify as Democrats, compared to 30% Republicans and 16% who are independents or affiliated with other parties.

This Democratic lead in early voting extends to several competitive Senate races, including those in states that traditionally lean Republican. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces off against former Republican Representative Mike Rogers, with early voting registration at 55% Democratic to 36% Republican. Similarly, in Iowa, where Republican Representative Ashley Hinson is contending with Democratic Representative Josh Turek, registered Democrats account for 64% of early voters while Republicans represent 21%, with the remainder from other affiliations. In Maine, Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins is defending her seat against Democrat Troy Jackson, with early voters identifying as 55% Democrat and 19% Republican, alongside more than a quarter classified as “other.”

Political analysts note that Democrats typically show stronger early or mail-in voting turnout compared to Republicans, but the current data does not clarify voting choices or guarantee final election outcomes. Stephen Voss, a political scientist at the University of Kentucky, said the advantage reflects “the Democrats have the enthusiasm advantage,” though he cautioned that it remains to be seen whether the figures represent a broader surge or primarily engage habitual voters.

Examining early returns from states with Republican-leaning electorates suggests some shifts since the 2022 midterms. In Nebraska, where Republican Senator Pete Ricketts is competing against Dan Osborne, a Democratic-aligned independent, Democrats have increased their early voting share to 45% from 44% two years ago, while Republicans decreased from 41% to 38%. Virginia is witnessing a notably high early turnout, with 519,000 ballots cast as of Thursday, nearly double the 260,000 at the comparable point in 2022.

Texas, home to a closely watched Senate contest between Democratic State Representative James Talarico and incumbent Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, shows a strong Democratic early voter edge with 63% versus 31% Republican.

Former President Donald Trump encouraged his supporters to participate in early voting in a video message released last weekend, urging prompt ballot submissions.

As early voting continues, observers will closely monitor whether these trends translate into broader voter participation and ultimately influence control of the Senate.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.