New research analyzing the 2019-20 black summer bushfires in New South Wales (NSW) has found that nearly all homes destroyed during the wildfires were located within 100 metres of flammable vegetation. The study reinforces the accuracy of existing bushfire risk maps used in the state but raises concerns about whether the current 100-metre buffer zone will remain adequate as climate change intensifies fire conditions.
Researchers examined the location of 2,475 homes lost in NSW during the devastating fire season, which claimed a total of more than 3,000 homes across Australia, killed 33 people, and severely impacted wildlife populations. Published in the International Journal of Wildland Fire, the study revealed that 94% of NSW homes destroyed were within the 100-metre distance from fuel sources such as trees and dense vegetation—validating the buffer zone used by fire authorities and planning agencies to designate bushfire-prone land and determine construction standards.
Associate Professor Owen Price, a bushfire risk expert at the University of Wollongong who led the research, described the findings as a robust endorsement of the existing metric. “Distance to vegetation is really important and that 100 metre rule that they apply is pretty good,” he stated. However, Price warned that under extreme or catastrophic fire danger conditions—measured by the forest fire danger index—homes beyond the 100-metre boundary were also burning, demonstrating that more severe fire weather could challenge current risk models.
Price highlighted the increasing threat posed by climate change, noting that worsening conditions globally have led to wildfires encroaching further into urban areas, citing examples such as the 2025 Eaton fire near Los Angeles that resulted in significant loss of life and property. The research emphasizes that as fire danger intensifies, prescribed clearances may need to be re-evaluated and possibly expanded to better protect communities.
Officials from the NSW Rural Fire Service acknowledged the research's implications for fire preparedness. Melissa O’Halloran, who oversees bushfire planning for the agency, said the findings underline the importance of building homes to higher fire-resistant standards within designated bushfire-prone zones. She also pointed out that after previous fires, investigations found some residents were unaware of their location within such zones, complicating risk management efforts.
Current regulations permit homeowners in bushfire-prone areas to remove trees within 10 metres and clear understory vegetation within 50 metres of their properties. The Rural Fire Service is reviewing its main bushfire protection policies to address the increasing climate-related risks, including faster drying of landscapes and extreme pyroconvective fire events.
Insp James Morris of the NSW Rural Fire Service indicated that Northern NSW, the Central West, and the Far South Coast are facing elevated fire risk this season due to recent heavy rainfall followed by drying conditions. He urged residents to prepare thoroughly as authorities anticipate a potentially challenging fire season ahead.
The research and official responses together highlight both the effectiveness of existing bushfire risk assessments and the growing need for adaptive strategies that account for escalating fire dangers under a warming climate.