MPs warn Budget watchdog ‘should not be blamed’ for difficult decisions

By the Editorial Team · Wednesday, September 23, 2026

UK Parliament members have urged the protection of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s independence ahead of Chancellor John Healey’s Budget, rejecting calls for major reforms of the fiscal watchdog. They recommended adding a 10-year economic forecast and increased parliamentary discussion of long-term fiscal risks to improve transparency and encourage more sustainable policy decisions.

Members of the UK Parliament have cautioned against blaming the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) for difficult fiscal decisions amid strained public finances, ahead of Chancellor John Healey’s upcoming Budget. The Treasury Committee emphasised the importance of preserving the OBR’s independence, rejecting calls for major reforms of the watchdog.

In a report published this week, the committee described attempts to overhaul the OBR as often motivated by desires to expand government spending room, which it said risks substituting sound economic policy with short-term convenience. Dame Meg Hillier, chairwoman of the Treasury Committee and Labour MP, dismissed characterisations of the OBR as wielding excessive control over Treasury ministers, stating that fiscal constraints stem from chancellors’ budgetary decisions rather than overreach by the watchdog.

Dame Hillier highlighted that the fiscal rules overseen by the OBR and its forecasts gain significance when spending margins are tight. She also suggested there could be value in the OBR extending its analysis to longer-term economic impacts, despite inherent uncertainties. Such measures, she said, could help foster a broader debate about overcoming the cycle of short-term policy making in the UK. “Now is the time to preserve the independent voice within our economic debate, not attempt to undermine it,” Hillier said, urging Chancellor Healey and government officials to advocate for the OBR’s role clearly and consistently.

Currently, the OBR produces two five-year forecasts annually, which accompany the Budget and the spring statement. The committee has recommended the introduction of a supplementary 10-year forecast to complement these assessments. This proposal received backing from Professor Douglas Elmendorf, former director of the US Congressional Budget Office, who argued that a longer-term forecast would better capture the future benefits of government investments.

The committee stressed that such a 10-year forecast would not affect the government’s existing fiscal rules, which remain tied to the five-year outlook. It also called on the government to allocate parliamentary time to discuss the OBR’s Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report, which includes 50-year projections.

The government is expected to respond to the committee’s report and recommendations within the next two months.

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