U.S. cities are confronting a substantial but largely hidden financial burden tied to aging infrastructure, according to a new study that estimates the cumulative wear and tear on urban roads, bridges, buildings, and equipment at roughly $1.03 trillion. While this figure does not represent the total cost to fully modernize these assets, it underscores the magnitude of repairs and upgrades that local governments will likely need to undertake in the coming years.

The study, conducted by municipal research expert Richard Ciccarone, analyzes infrastructure conditions and expected lifespans across 2,000 cities nationwide. Ciccarone, who delayed retirement to complete the research after a 48-year career in municipal finance, used publicly available data on asset age and projected useful life to calculate the wear-and-tear value. His findings reveal that many city structures are already operating beyond their intended service periods.

“This obligation is often hidden on balance sheets but eventually must be addressed, and typically at a higher cost,” Ciccarone said. He noted that municipalities frequently postpone infrastructure investment to manage budget constraints, avoid tax increases, and maintain payments on pensions and debt. Unlike pension liabilities, infrastructure deficits commonly remain off municipal accounting records and, consequently, invisible to investors in the $4 trillion municipal bond market.

The implications are familiar to city officials with limited funding for capital repairs. Spencer Duncan, mayor of Topeka, Kansas, highlighted the challenge faced by local governments nationwide, saying, “Infrastructure needs exceed available funding.” Older, industrial cities such as Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Milwaukee were identified as having particularly large potential liabilities for infrastructure maintenance and replacement. Meanwhile, faster-growing cities in the Sun Belt, including Austin, Texas, Charlotte, North Carolina, and Phoenix, were found to be in comparatively better positions.

Jacksonville, Florida, stood out among large cities by ranking favorably despite its pension-related fiscal pressures. The city’s local infrastructure sales tax, combined with federal stimulus aid and hurricane recovery efforts, have supported its infrastructure funding.

In Philadelphia, officials are considering a $1.5 billion investment spread over the next six years for infrastructure upgrades, according to Rob Dubow, the city’s finance director. Additional funding sources—including state and federal contributions—are projected to provide an extra $20 billion.

Ciccarone’s estimated infrastructure wear-and-tear represents more than three times the aggregate municipal bond debt and four times the pension debt reported by the cities analyzed. The study aims to raise awareness of the scale of deferred maintenance and the potential fiscal stress that could increase if municipalities do not find ways to address these arrears.

As cities continue to balance competing financial pressures, the growing disparity between visible debt obligations and the less transparent infrastructure deficits poses a significant challenge for urban policymakers and investors alike.