NATO leaders have expressed support for Ukraine’s recent escalation of drone and missile strikes deep inside Russian territory, viewing the campaign as a strategic effort to pressure Moscow into resuming peace negotiations, according to Finland’s President Alexander Stubb. Speaking ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, Stubb said the alliance recognizes the importance of increasing pressure on Russia to end its invasion.

Stubb highlighted that Ukraine is currently in a stronger position on multiple fronts—militarily, politically, and financially—than at any point since the conflict began, a development that has shifted the strategic calculations of Western mediators. “Ukraine is right now on top on the battlefield,” he stated, emphasizing that this advantage has heightened tensions within Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described the strikes as a way to force Moscow to reconsider its invasion by bringing the war closer to Russian territory, hoping to galvanize domestic opposition to the conflict. Stubb echoed this view, suggesting that direct impacts on the Russian population could create leverage for renewed negotiations, a goal shared by NATO members.

Concerns had initially been raised by China and some NATO allies about Ukraine’s long-range strikes due to the risk of escalation, including the potential for nuclear retaliation. Stubb acknowledged these risks but said that dialogue with Chinese officials underscored Beijing’s awareness of the dangers, with China issuing “red flags” on nuclear escalation matters. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly mentioned Russia’s nuclear arsenal and suggested that European nations supporting Ukraine could face consequences. Recently, Putin ordered an assessment of Western involvement in the conflict to inform future decisions.

The Kremlin has criticized Western support for Ukraine, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accusing Western countries of actively turning Russia’s “special military operation” into an outright war by aiding strikes against Russian targets through intelligence and weaponry. Peskov argued that Ukraine’s attacks aim to project an image of strength to its Western backers rather than impose real pressure on Russia.

Stubb warned of the likelihood of ongoing Russian provocations and hybrid attacks targeting Europe, particularly if a ceasefire is reached. He also cautioned that Russia would likely rebuild its military capabilities, especially in northern Europe, after the conflict.

Meanwhile, Russia launched another significant airstrike on Kyiv in recent days, killing at least 11 people, marking the second major attack on the capital within a week. This followed the deadliest bombardment of Kyiv this year, which resulted in 31 deaths. On the ground, the Russian offensive has stalled, with heavy casualties and territorial losses reported; Finnish-based Black Bird Group estimates Russia lost around 9 square kilometers in Ukraine in June, the first net territorial loss noted by the group since 2023.

Stubb emphasized that Russia’s withdrawal from the war is unlikely to result from battlefield losses or economic decline but rather from shifting public opinion within Russia. He noted that growing domestic unrest is a key factor influencing Moscow’s calculations.

Discussion about Ukraine’s potential NATO membership has been postponed until after a possible ceasefire, as some alliance members remain cautious. Stubb, however, advocated for deeper integration of Ukraine’s defense industry with NATO as a means to effectively grant Kyiv a membership-like status and strengthen collective defense. While acknowledging political obstacles, he argued that Ukraine’s advanced drone and missile capabilities make it a valuable addition to the alliance’s deterrence posture.

Drawing on Finland’s rapid accession to NATO in 2023, Stubb suggested that Ukraine adopt similar measures, aligning its defense systems with NATO standards ahead of formal membership. He noted that Ukraine could potentially achieve even greater integration pre-membership than Finland did, given its expertise and capabilities in modern warfare. “In terms of modern warfare capabilities, Ukraine is number one,” he said.