At this week’s NATO summit in Ankara, alliance members reaffirmed their steadfast support for Ukraine, pledging additional military aid and training in its ongoing conflict. The two-day meeting also reiterated the commitment made at the 2025 summit in The Hague to increase defense spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2028, a target strongly advocated by U.S. President Donald Trump.

However, the summit’s brief final declaration also addressed broader security concerns, particularly regarding Iran. NATO reiterated that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons and emphasized the importance of maintaining freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a key international shipping route. This explicit focus on Iran marks a notable development in NATO’s strategic language, reflecting heightened tensions in the Gulf region.

During the summit, tensions escalated between Iran and the United States, with Iran launching attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which prompted U.S. retaliatory strikes on over 90 Iranian military targets. Tehran subsequently launched missile attacks targeting Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. President Trump declared the ceasefire over and criticized NATO for a perceived lack of support in confronting what he described as the "number one state sponsor of terror."

Despite Trump’s remarks, NATO members have expressed support for U.S. operations. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte acknowledged American frustration concerning Iran but highlighted substantial European contributions, including up to 5,000 sorties from European bases and active intercepts of Iranian missile threats, notably those directed at Turkiye.

While the alliance shows concern over Iran’s actions, experts suggest that direct military involvement by NATO in the Gulf conflict remains unlikely. Luke Coffey, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, pointed out that NATO could contribute meaningfully in areas such as air defense, particularly given the increasing threat posed by Iranian or Iran-linked drones and unmanned systems across both Europe and the Gulf.

Coffey also emphasized improving NATO’s engagement with Gulf countries through the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI), a framework established in 2004 that includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE as members, with Oman and Saudi Arabia participating selectively. The initiative held its first foreign minister-level meeting at the summit, signaling a potential step toward more regular and structured cooperation in training, joint exercises, and confidence building.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan echoed calls for deeper engagement with ICI partners, underscoring the importance of fostering closer ties between NATO and Gulf states. Nonetheless, the historic reluctance of NATO members to engage in open-ended conflicts abroad, particularly following the contested 2011 Libya operation, tempers expectations of a direct military role in the current Gulf tensions.

Analysts like Brian Katulis of the Middle East Institute note that the U.S. and Israel initiated recent hostilities against Iran without broad consultation with NATO or regional partners, further reducing the likelihood of expanded NATO military intervention. European countries, grappling with reduced military capacities and preoccupied by the war in Ukraine, show limited appetite for further involvement.

Instead, existing maritime security operations, such as those conducted under U.S. and British command through Combined Task Forces based in Bahrain, continue to provide a framework for addressing Gulf security challenges. Coffey suggests NATO should concentrate its efforts on defense within Europe, while working alongside allies and Gulf partners through established structures to address shared threats in the Middle East.