As the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) marks its 99th anniversary, its evolving military strategy highlights China’s growing ambitions to assert control over the first island chain—a strategic arc of islands stretching from Japan and Taiwan to the Philippines. The PLA aims to become a “world-class military” by the mid-21st century, with a focus on overcoming the US-led security architecture that currently limits its operational freedom in the region.
The first island chain serves as a critical maritime boundary between China’s near seas and the broader Pacific Ocean, encompassing key transit points such as the Miyako Strait, Bashi Channel, and Luzon Strait. Historically rooted in Cold War strategy, this chain now represents a focal point of military competition between China and the United States. The US and its allies maintain a network of forward-deployed forces along these islands to counterbalance China’s expanding military capabilities.
In recent years, the PLA has made significant advances that could challenge US dominance in the area. Notably, China has conducted dual-carrier naval operations, increased large-scale arms production, enhanced nuclear deterrence capabilities, and expanded its navy and missile arsenals. These developments have enabled Beijing to pursue greater power projection beyond its immediate coastal waters, signaling a shift from a primarily defensive posture to a more offensive and assertive military approach.
The US and its regional partners have responded by deepening defense cooperation and expanding military basing. Japan has strengthened its military presence and capabilities along its southwestern islands, while the US has increased rotational access to bases in the Philippines. Exercises involving the US, Japan, and the Philippines have evolved from symbolic drills into complex joint operations focused on multidomain sensing, command and control, coastal defense, and integrated fires.
Experts note that China views the first island chain as both a barrier and a springboard for broader regional influence. Beijing’s goal is not only to defend against potential attacks but also to prevent effective responses to its own moves, projecting power across the region. China’s evolving force structure includes carrier strike groups, amphibious assault ships, replenishment vessels, and expanding overseas logistics—enabling longer deployments further from its shores.
Strategic analysts highlight that China has also stepped up military coordination with Russia, conducting joint bomber patrols and naval exercises. This cooperation is seen as a “grey zone” alliance, intended to signal shared objectives and raise the potential costs for the US and its allies in deepening regional defense ties.
China has bolstered its strategic deterrence by demonstrating operational readiness of its sea-based nuclear forces and testing intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the Pacific. Analysts suggest these capabilities enhance the PLA’s ability to complement conventional power projection with credible second-strike nuclear deterrence.
Despite these developments, uncertainty remains over which side will gain decisive military leverage along the island chain. While China benefits from a vast industrial base able to produce systems at scale, the US and its allies retain advantages in innovation, operational adaptability, and combat experience. The PLA still faces challenges in effectively employing its newer capabilities in complex joint operations, leaving the outcome of this growing military rivalry unsettled.