Britain and its allies may be facing “catastrophic events” due to challenges in countering Russia’s expanding undersea capabilities, according to General Sir Gwyn Jenkins, the First Sea Lord and head of the Royal Navy. In a recent interview on the Defence Talks podcast hosted by the Council on Geostrategy, Jenkins expressed concern over Russia’s subsurface military developments, particularly submarines and a research programme focused on damaging critical underwater infrastructure.
Jenkins highlighted the strategic vulnerability of the UK as an island nation, emphasizing its reliance on the sea for data transmission, trade, and energy supplies. He described Russia’s growing undersea capabilities as a significant threat that allied forces are currently struggling to contain. Central to this concern is Russia’s Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research, known as GUGI, which operates autonomous monitoring stations on the ocean floor and is suspected of mapping undersea cables vital to Western countries. British intelligence indicates that GUGI has the ability to deploy and refuel underwater drones equipped with tools such as saws, claws, and explosives intended for sabotage.
One of GUGI’s advanced vessels, the Yantar, carries two manned submersibles capable of operating up to six kilometers deep. The ship notably entered UK territorial waters last November and reportedly shone lasers at British military pilots, an incident reflecting the broader pattern of tensions in maritime domains.
Jenkins described GUGI as an independently funded branch of the Russian state with a primary mission to target critical underwater infrastructure, either as a tactical move in the event of war or as leverage in economic and geopolitical disputes. This warning comes amid escalating hostilities related to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Russian officials recently threatened strikes against British military assets both inside and outside Ukraine after the UK supplied missiles used in attacks inside Russia. The British government has acknowledged the presence of a small number of army medical specialists and special forces in Ukraine, along with the use of British-made drones for strikes.
In light of these developments, Jenkins stressed the importance of rapid military response capabilities. He pointed to the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a UK-led coalition of ten Northern European nations, which he believes offers greater political agility than NATO due to its lower consensus threshold for action. This flexibility could allow for earlier responses to crises before wider NATO mobilization.
Jenkins also raised concerns over evolving warfare technologies witnessed in Ukraine and other conflict zones such as the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. He argued that the UK must accelerate its transition to autonomous warfare technologies to maintain a strategic edge, warning that failure to do so against an autonomous-capable adversary could lead to defeat.
Meanwhile, UK political figures have reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine despite Russian threats. Andy Burnham, for example, indicated continued backing for Kyiv in the face of Moscow’s warnings.
As tensions rise, the Royal Navy’s assessment underscores the complexity of undersea threats and the broader challenge of adapting military strategies to rapidly advancing technologies in a contested maritime environment.