Abu Dhabi’s National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has projected a high likelihood that the El Niño climate phenomenon will extend from November 2026 through March 2027, with a probability of 96 percent. The centre also indicated the potential for sea surface temperatures in the monitored region to rise as much as 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027, which would mark an exceptionally strong event.

Despite the forecasted intensity, the NCM cautioned that a robust El Niño does not necessarily translate to increased rainfall for the United Arab Emirates or the broader Arabian Gulf region. The centre noted that El Niño’s impact on the area tends to be indirect, primarily affecting atmospheric wind patterns and the behavior of low-pressure systems.

These changes in wind and pressure systems may influence rainfall distribution, but the link between El Niño and precipitation levels remains complex and not directly proportional to the phenomenon’s strength. The NCM specified that the effects of El Niño could persist beyond March 2027, potentially continuing into April.

The forecast aligns with recent assessments from the World Meteorological Organization, which also highlighted the possibility of above-average sea surface temperatures characteristic of an intensified El Niño phase during the upcoming months. The prolonged presence of El Niño raises awareness for meteorological monitoring and preparedness in the region, given the phenomenon’s ability to alter climate patterns on a global scale.