The National Center for Meteorology (NCM) and the Climate Change Center (CCC) have issued a joint advisory indicating a high likelihood that El Niño conditions will develop and persist through the end of 2026 and into early 2027. This climate phenomenon is expected to influence temperature and rainfall patterns across Saudi Arabia.

As of July 5, the country is experiencing a neutral phase in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the Niño 3.4 Index registering at +0.39°C. Forecast models, however, predict a significant warming trend in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the index projected to rise above +0.8°C and potentially reach approximately +1.25°C. Such levels would classify the event as a strong El Niño.

El Niño is known for causing changes in global weather patterns, often resulting in warmer temperatures and altered precipitation distribution. For Saudi Arabia, these developments could translate into shifts in seasonal rainfall and increased heat, which may have implications for agriculture, water resources, and overall climate conditions in the region.

The NCM and CCC advisories emphasize the need for continued monitoring of the evolving situation to support preparedness and mitigation efforts. Both agencies will provide updates as new data become available and as the strength and duration of El Niño conditions become clearer.