A recent government-commissioned report warns that nearly all homes in England will require air conditioning by 2080 as climate change drives average temperatures higher. The study predicts that 90 percent of residential properties will need active cooling systems to maintain safe indoor conditions amid more frequent and severe heatwaves.

Currently, about 4.6 million homes already experience uncomfortable summer overheating, especially those in flats and mid-terrace houses within English cities. The report, prepared by consultancy LCP Delta for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), finds that this figure is expected to surge in coming decades due to rising temperatures.

Present UK building regulations prioritize passive cooling methods, such as insulation, shading, and window designs, to manage indoor heat. However, the report notes these approaches will increasingly prove insufficient, as passive measures alone cannot mitigate the risks posed by projected climate scenarios. It highlights a need to reconsider rules that restrict air conditioning installation, including planning permission requirements for commercial properties and some residential blocks, which local authorities often deny.

Opponents of air conditioning point to concerns that such technology can exacerbate urban heat by generating additional waste heat. Nevertheless, the DESNZ report emphasizes that the traditional UK approach—designing buildings primarily for winter warmth—must adapt to a warming climate. The analysis suggests that under a scenario with a 2°C temperature rise by 2080, virtually all homes outside Scotland would fail overheating risk assessments. Under a 4°C increase scenario, 90 percent of UK dwellings would require some form of active cooling.

Since the 1980s, the UK has warmed approximately 0.25°C per decade, a trend correlated with rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Met Office data referenced in the report indicate that average UK temperatures have climbed nearly 1.5°C since the mid-20th century. This relatively modest rise has nevertheless led to a 63 percent increase in days exceeding 25°C and a doubling of days reaching 28°C or higher.

The findings suggest a pressing need to revise building codes and planning policies to prepare for a hotter future, ensuring that homes can provide adequate protection against heat-related health risks.