As Alberta prepares for a referendum on independence scheduled for October, uncertainty surrounding the province’s separatist movement is beginning to affect its housing market. Real estate professionals in Calgary and Edmonton report that a climate of caution is taking hold, with some sellers advised to avoid displaying Canadian flags or other potentially divisive political or religious symbols during sales.

Calgary realtor Rebecca Chamberlain recently recommended a client remove a Canadian flag from a property listed for sale, noting that such symbols may alienate potential buyers. “It’s just another thing for people to be divided about,” she said, emphasizing her focus on securing the best price for her client rather than taking a political stance.

Housing market experts caution that the uncertainty related to the independence debate compounds existing challenges, including an oversupply of condominiums and slower migration to the province. For much of 2025, Calgary and Edmonton experienced moderate price growth—7 percent year-over-year in Edmonton and 4 percent in Calgary as of July 2025. However, this summer has seen a shift, with Calgary reporting four consecutive months of 1-percent year-over-year price declines and Edmonton’s growth slowing to 1 percent in June.

Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist for the Calgary Real Estate Board, highlighted concerns about the impact of the referendum on business investment, job stability, and population movements, all of which could retard the housing market’s recovery. “If we’re going to go through an official referendum, that’s a risk and weigh on migration flows,” she said, citing Quebec’s historic outflow of residents and stagnant property prices during its separatist movements from the 1970s through the 1990s.

A recent poll conducted by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce found that half of local businesses would consider relocating if Alberta were to separate, with the Chamber estimating potential economic losses in the billions of dollars. This possible business exodus would contrast sharply with the interprovincial migration wave triggered by the 2023 “Alberta is Calling” campaign, which sought to attract residents with lower real estate costs and higher wages.

Mortgage broker Joe Jacobs echoed the sentiment that market activity may pause in the lead-up to the October vote and a potential second referendum required for separation to proceed. “There’s a risk there’ll be a market that pauses for sure,” he said.

Meanwhile, broker Rob Vanovermeire of Coldwell Banker Mountain Central believes the separatist movement has already contributed to the market slowdown. “We’re working with some people who have decided to put their plans on hold until next year,” he noted, pointing to buyers’ preference to wait for greater certainty.

Despite the challenges, Vanovermeire remains optimistic about Alberta’s economic prospects. He suggested that Premier Danielle Smith’s administration aims primarily to renegotiate Alberta’s position within Canada rather than pursue full independence. He added that the province’s oil and gas sector underpins a strong economy regardless of the referendum’s outcome. “Alberta has a strong economic engine, whether we’re part of Canada or not,” he said.