Israel’s recent parliamentary election, held on October 31, 2026, has produced a fragmented outcome with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition nor the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot securing a clear majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The vote, the first since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, saw the highest turnout in over two decades and is widely regarded as a pivotal moment in Israeli politics.

With approximately 85 to 86 percent of votes counted, Netanyahu’s coalition—which includes his Likud party along with ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox factions—was projected to win 53 to 54 seats, falling short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. Likud itself emerged as the largest individual party with about 26 to 27 seats. Eisenkot’s Yashar party and allied Jewish opposition parties collectively stood at around 48 to 49 seats. Meanwhile, Arab parties achieved a historic surge, winning between 17 and 19 seats combined, compared with 10 seats in the outgoing Knesset.

The Arab parties, notably the Joint List and the Islamist Ra’am party, could thus play a decisive role in government formation. Leaders from both parties indicated a willingness to help form a government that would unseat Netanyahu, signaling openness to cooperate with opposition blocs. Yousef Jabareen, Joint List chairman, called on opposition parties to engage with Arab lawmakers for a “substantive” change, while Ra’am head Mansour Abbas said his party has received outreach from political figures across the spectrum.

However, cooperation with Arab parties remains highly contentious. Key opposition figures such as Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett have ruled out participating in or supporting a government reliant on Arab factions, reflecting lingering mistrust and ideological divides. Eisenkot has suggested he might lead a minority government supported externally by Arab parties, a strategy contemplated but never previously implemented in Israeli history. Left-wing opposition leader Yair Golan has publicly called for breaking the traditional Jewish-Arab political divide, urging collaboration to replace Netanyahu.

Netanyahu, who has governed Israel for much of the past two decades, claimed victory within the “Jewish camp” and urged rival Jewish parties to join him in forming a “national, rightwing government” without reliance on Arab lawmakers. He characterized Arab parties as anti-Zionist and accused them of supporting terrorism, a stance echoed by Likud’s campaign rhetoric but widely disputed by other political actors. Netanyahu also remains vocal on security concerns, particularly regarding Iran, vowing to confront what he describes as an existential threat.

The election exposed deep societal divisions, with a growing portion of the electorate belonging to ultra-Orthodox and religious-nationalist communities bolstering Netanyahu’s base, while much of the secular and liberal Jewish population appeared aligned against him. Analysts noted the opposition’s difficulties in uniting behind a clear alternative platform, despite broad dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s handling of security, specifically the October 7 attacks.

Israel’s Central Elections Committee is expected to finalize results by November 4, after which President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders to designate a candidate to form a government. The designated individual has up to 28 days, extendable once for 14 days, to negotiate a coalition. If unsuccessful, the mandate may pass to a second candidate, and failing that, the Knesset itself can propose a third, or new elections may be called.

Given the current stalemate, options under consideration include prolonged coalition negotiations, a government of national unity potentially involving rotating premiership arrangements, or a fresh election. Herzog emphasized the need for an open mind and urged political leaders to avoid further elections if possible.

Meanwhile, concerns linger that a protracted deadlock could exacerbate political tensions and constitutional uncertainties. Some opposition groups worry Netanyahu may resist ceding power even if unable to form a majority, recalling past episodes of institutional friction. The new Knesset is set to convene by November 10, where parliamentary leadership battles may foreshadow the broader political struggle ahead.

In summary, Israel faces an uncertain political future following an election that underscored societal cleavages and the centrality of Arab parties as potential kingmakers. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot remain contenders for the premiership, but neither currently commands a clear path to a stable government. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether a negotiated coalition can emerge or if Israelis face another round of voting amid ongoing regional and domestic challenges.