Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has intensified tensions with Turkiye following an Israeli airstrike on Abu Duhur airport, a Syrian military base near the Turkish border. The attack, publicly claimed by Israel, marks a departure from previous covert military operations in Syria and includes accusations that Turkiye was preparing to deploy troops at the airbase. This development has raised concerns about a potential escalation between two of the region’s most powerful militaries.

The timing of the strikes, coming ahead of Israel’s October general election, has fueled speculation that Netanyahu’s actions may be politically motivated. Critics argue that this escalation aligns with a broader pattern in Netanyahu’s current government, which they say prioritizes military force over diplomatic engagement when addressing security challenges. The follow-up airstrike conducted a few days later further underscores this perspective.

The recent military moves come after the political transition in Syria, where Ahmad Al-Sharaa replaced Bashar Assad. While Assad’s rule was characterized by prolonged conflict, Al-Sharaa has been perceived as pragmatic and restrained, especially in response to Israeli military activities. Israel’s seizure of additional territory beyond the occupied Golan Heights—intended to establish a buffer zone—and the December 2024 airstrikes were met with a measured response from Damascus, which has since signaled a preference to avoid confrontation.

Damascus has expressed no interest in escalating tensions, focusing instead on reconstruction and economic recovery after years of turmoil. A significant development supporting this approach was the recent removal of Syria from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism after 47 years, a move expected to facilitate foreign investment and reintegration into the global economy. Observers question why Syria would jeopardize these gains through direct conflict with Israel.

Netanyahu maintains that Israel and Syria had agreed on a security status quo, which he claims Syria was close to violating by allowing Turkish forces near Aleppo. However, this assertion is contested due to Israel’s own history of unilaterally changing the status quo. Turkiye, supported by the United States, denied the accusation and suggested Israel may be trying to provoke Turkiye ahead of the Israeli elections. U.S. Ambassador to Turkiye and special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, proposed that the attack might be a deliberate electoral gambit, or alternatively, could reflect internal miscommunication within Israel’s military and political leadership.

At a time when Israel’s relations with the United States and Turkiye are critical, some analysts warn that Netanyahu’s recent actions may strain these partnerships. The U.S. president has developed close ties with Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian leader Ahmad Al-Sharaa, and further Israeli strikes risk undermining Washington’s regional strategy. The potential for a crisis with Turkiye, a NATO member, has been seen by some as a sign of increasing desperation within Netanyahu’s camp, with political ambitions possibly overshadowing broader national interests.