Since June, a polling entity called Wedgewood Polls has released a series of surveys across various midterm battleground states, including Michigan, Maine, and Kansas. On Tuesday night, following inquiries from the polling analysis website FiftyPlusOne, Wedgewood acknowledged that nearly all its polls were fabricated, describing the project as an "experimental" exercise rather than genuine polling.
The fabricated surveys gained visibility through several well-known polling aggregators, including those used by major news organizations to track elections. These entities subsequently removed the Wedgewood polls—fifteen in total—from their platforms. An editors' notice stated the polls had initially been included after Wedgewood provided responses to detailed questions on its identity, methodology, and funding.
This incident marks the second time in recent months that fake polls have drawn attention within U.S. political circles. In August, another group admitted to releasing bogus polls in California, Nevada, and Wisconsin, also framing their work as a "social experiment." Wedgewood echoed this justification, posting a statement on social media questioning how easily a fictitious polling firm could gain credibility and noting the lack of scrutiny such data often receives in the media and public discourse.
Despite the acknowledgment of fakery, Wedgewood’s effort involved considerable setup, with survey documents initially posted on a now-removed website and social media, and several appeals for funding or sponsorship made publicly. The group has stated that one of its polls, from Nebraska, was actually conducted. As of Wednesday morning, Wedgewood’s website was offline and emails sent to the group bounced back.
FiftyPlusOne, operated by former FiveThirtyEight employees, reached out for comment earlier Tuesday and attempted to replicate one of Wedgewood’s Mississippi polls using the online survey tool Pollfish. The replication effort revealed persistent data inconsistencies, reinforcing suspicions about the polls' legitimacy. FiftyPlusOne noted the growing ease of producing low-quality or entirely fabricated polls.
While Wedgewood did not claim to have conducted national-level surveys or tracked presidential approval ratings, its state and district-level polls were circulated widely and influenced campaign dynamics. These polls impacted perceptions among candidates; for example, Michigan state senator Mallory McMorrow said a June Wedgewood poll showing her support in the single digits led to a loss of donations and volunteers, severely damaging her Senate primary campaign. McMorrow described the poll as a critical setback following another disputed survey.
Similarly, last week, Scott Colom’s Senate campaign in Mississippi publicized a Wedgewood poll showing “massive momentum” for the candidate, citing the survey in a news release before its authenticity was revealed as false.
The controversy surrounding Wedgewood Polls has intensified broader scrutiny of polling practices amid ongoing concerns about the reliability of election data, the proliferation of unknown data firms, and challenges in reaching diverse voter populations. The incident underscores the difficulties news organizations and the public face in verifying poll accuracy, and the potential consequences of misleading or fake surveys in shaping electoral narratives.
