With the U.S. midterm elections approaching in less than 50 days, a new national poll reveals a notable advantage for Democratic candidates over Republicans, driven largely by public dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy and the rising cost of living. The survey, conducted among likely voters, shows Democrats leading Republicans by nearly nine percentage points in congressional districts, suggesting potential momentum heading into November’s contests.

President Trump’s approval rating remains low at around 38 percent among likely voters, consistent with recent months. A majority of respondents expressed disapproval of his management of key issues including the economy, immigration, tariffs, and foreign conflicts, especially the cost of living. Economic concerns loom largest, with only 14 percent of voters saying the economy is better than a year ago—a sharp decline from 31 percent earlier this year. Among Republicans, confidence in the economy has plummeted, with just 29 percent now saying it has improved, down from 72 percent in January.

Independent voters, a critical group in the midterms, show significant dissatisfaction with Mr. Trump. Only 27 percent approve of his overall job performance, and 57 percent said they intend to vote for Democratic candidates in November, compared to 34 percent for Republicans. Opposition to the president’s management of the Iran conflict is also widespread, particularly among independents, with over three-quarters disapproving. Even approximately one-quarter of Mr. Trump’s 2024 voters expressed dissatisfaction with his handling of the war.

Voters also perceive broader Republican vulnerabilities beyond the president himself. The poll indicates that the GOP is seen as more extreme, elitist, and corrupt than the Democratic Party. Although doubts exist about both parties, respondents reported greater alignment with Democrats on cultural and economic issues. However, many still view the Democratic Party as too far left, with half of voters describing it this way—an increase from earlier in the year. Despite this, Democrats maintain a substantial lead in preferences for congressional control, with 11 percent more voters favoring them over Republicans.

Democratic strength appears to be driven by younger voters, Hispanic voters, and independents—groups that had shown weakening support for the party in recent years. Among voters under 30, Democrats hold a 35-point advantage, while Hispanic voters favor them by 43 points. President Trump’s approval among younger voters is particularly low at 18 percent.

The rising cost of living is reported as a primary issue impacting voter decisions. Approval of the president’s handling of affordability issues stands at 28 percent, with a net disapproval margin of 43 percentage points. This economic strain is notably affecting lower-wage earners, who now prefer Democratic candidates by a nearly two-to-one margin, marking a significant shift compared to the 2024 presidential election.

Republicans also face an enthusiasm gap, with 61 percent of Democrats indicating they are almost certain to vote compared to 56 percent of Republicans. Some voters dissatisfied with both parties cite concerns about extremism and ineffective leadership. While some express frustration with Democrats being perceived as too ideologically distant, others criticize Republicans for allowing Mr. Trump to push boundaries.

Despite the challenges, some Republicans remain loyal to local GOP candidates, distinguishing them from national party figures. Overall, the poll underscores a complex electoral landscape shaped by economic hardship, political polarization, and shifting voter coalitions as the November midterms approach.