A new analysis of the Arab regional order highlights the persistent challenges and evolving dynamics that have shaped inter-Arab relations and the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape over the past several decades. The study points to a major turning point in recent history: the Arab Spring, which triggered widespread upheaval and reshaped the interactions among Arab states and their neighboring powers.

Since the early 2010s, the Middle East has witnessed intensified involvement by regional actors pursuing distinct political, economic, and strategic agendas. Iran, for example, has adopted a “forward defense” strategy leveraging affiliated militias to extend its influence, while Israel has accelerated settlement expansion in the West Bank and increased incursions into Lebanon and Syria. Meanwhile, Turkey has used the Kurdish issue as a pretext for military interventions in Iraq and Syria to bolster its regional presence.

This volatile environment has been marked by ongoing conflict, including the current war involving Israel, the United States, and Iran. Analysts emphasize that this escalation is rooted in the competing regional projects of these powers, each willing to deploy military force and coercion to advance their goals. The situation is compounded by the fragility and erosion of state authority throughout the region, with some states experiencing near collapse and even the most established governments facing significant risks.

Despite the formation of various international and regional alliances and coalitions aimed at collective security, underlying disagreements and contradictions persist among member states. While cooperation signals recognition of shared threats, it has not translated into a cohesive regional security framework. Arab states have made limited efforts to create institutional mechanisms that define common objectives, establish priorities, and coordinate responses effectively.

Critically, the region lacks systems to monitor and assess the challenges stemming from non-Arab actors such as Israel and Iran. The former’s efforts to reshape the Middle East through territorial and demographic initiatives have heightened fears of forced Palestinian displacement. Iran’s ambitions pressure Arab states either to align with Tehran’s priorities or risk descending into internal conflict. The recent war is thus viewed as an inevitable consequence of these unresolved tensions.

Among Arab countries, a group identified as “mature” states—including the six Gulf Cooperation Council members, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia—maintain relative stability and development. These nations have preserved diplomatic ties with Iran following the ALUJA Declaration of January 2021 but have received continued military and economic hostility in return. Similarly, six Arab states that have peace agreements with Israel still confront border instability driven by Palestinian displacement concerns.

Experts argue these mature Arab states must enhance their understanding of the urgent regional threats and collaboratively develop a strategic framework that integrates diplomatic, economic, communication, and military efforts tailored to individual national interests. Such a coordinated approach aims to foster regional security and balance of power, enabling more effective negotiation during both conflict and peace.

The overarching assessment underscores that both Iran and Israel have exceeded acceptable limits of violence and destruction, deepening instability across different parts of the Arab world. While much of the region has endured significant turmoil for decades, Palestine remains a focal point of protracted suffering.

The analysis calls for the conceptualization of a comprehensive “Arab project” focused on regional security and cooperation, involving not only Arab states but also their non-Arab neighbors. Establishing such a framework is seen as essential to addressing the complex challenges facing the Middle East and reducing the likelihood of further cycles of violence.