Andy Burnham’s election as the Member of Parliament for Makerfield has concluded his nine-year tenure as mayor of Greater Manchester. With Burnham stepping down, the region’s roughly 3 million residents are set to vote on July 30 to elect his successor to serve the remaining two years of his term. The new mayoral role arrives at a pivotal moment, with expanded powers and responsibilities compared to when the office was first established.

Burnham’s term was marked by a period when the mayoralty was a relatively new entity with limited statutory powers. Initially, Burnham sought to assert influence akin to a regional minister but soon recognized his role was more collaborative, chairing a committee comprising leaders from ten borough councils, each wielding significant policy levers. Despite this, Burnham was noted for his ability to unite diverse agencies—police, health services, and local governments—toward common goals, such as reducing homelessness, achieving notable though fluctuating success.

The incoming mayor will inherit enhanced authority following a recent “trailblazer” devolution deal with the UK government, jointly negotiated by Burnham. This agreement grants Greater Manchester greater control over areas like transport and skills development, including access to a consolidated funding pot that allows the mayor discretion over budget allocations. This financing model is a significant step forward from the previously fragmented, project-specific funding streams. Consequently, the mayoral office is evolving closer to the model seen in large US cities, with real financial and operational powers.

The election is expected to feature Labour’s Bev Craig as the frontrunner. Craig, currently leader of Manchester City Council, has a reputation for detailed economic and urban development work, building social housing while maintaining a pragmatic approach to city planning. Born in Belfast in 1985 and raised in Northern Ireland, Craig has been involved in Greater Manchester’s governance for several years and was instrumental in economic and inclusive growth portfolios within the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA). She has garnered endorsements acknowledging her competence and pragmatic leadership style but faces critiques regarding her comparatively low public profile and questions about whether she possesses the charismatic appeal Burnham demonstrated on the national stage.

Labour’s prospects are further buoyed by the introduction of a supplementary vote system, which encourages voters to indicate backup preferences, potentially enabling Labour to consolidate support through second-choice votes from Green and Liberal Democrat supporters. The Greens have nominated Geraldine Coggins, while Reform UK, having made electoral gains in local councils across Greater Manchester, stands as Labour’s primary challenger. Reform’s base is strongest in outlying boroughs such as Wigan, Tameside, and Oldham, with the party having previously fielded candidates like Dan Barker in the mayoral race and reportedly considering figures such as Maggie Oliver, a whistleblower in high-profile grooming cases.

Restore Britain, a smaller right-wing party focusing on child sexual exploitation, is also expected to contest the election, with campaigners like Marlon Scott West entering the fray. The debate over grooming gangs has emerged as a particularly sensitive and potentially influential issue in the campaign, which Reform and Restore hope will dominate public attention.

The new mayor will oversee significant administrative duties including oversight of the region’s transport networks, police and fire services, a £6 billion health and social care budget, and adult education funding. Observers note the importance of financial acumen and strategic prioritization in managing these portfolios, especially to ensure ongoing projects like the Bee Network and the Metrolink tram system remain financially viable.

Burnham’s departure to Westminster has left a power vacuum, and though he retains influence, the next mayor will face distinct challenges and opportunities. While Craig may not command the national profile of her predecessor, her detailed policy experience and local governance background position her to navigate the increased powers the office will carry. The election will test whether voters are ready to endorse continuity under Labour or seek change through Reform or other challengers, with the outcome likely shaping Greater Manchester’s political and economic trajectory for years to come.