The start of the NFL season often prompts immediate reactions to early game outcomes, but historical trends suggest that Week 1 results are not always reliable indicators of a team’s ultimate success. The 2025 season serves as a reminder of the pitfalls of overreacting to initial performances.
Last February, the Seattle Seahawks clinched the Super Bowl, despite having begun the regular season with a loss. Seattle dropped their first game to division rival San Francisco but rebounded with a dominant playoff run, including a decisive victory over the 49ers. Similarly, the New England Patriots also started 0-1, suffering a surprising home defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders—a team that finished with only four wins yet secured the top pick in the subsequent draft. Both Seahawks and Patriots overcame slow starts to reach the postseason, emphasizing that Week 1 losses do not preclude playoff success.
Five teams that lost their opening game last season advanced to the playoffs overall: Seattle, New England, Chicago, Houston, and Carolina. Conversely, nearly half of Week 1 winners—seven out of sixteen—failed to reach the postseason, with teams such as Arizona, Cincinnati, and Washington each finishing the year with six or fewer wins.
Since the NFL expanded the playoffs to seven teams per conference in 2020, an average of approximately 4.3 teams per season have lost in Week 1 but still qualified for the playoffs, while roughly 6.2 teams per season won their opener only to miss out on postseason play. These statistics underscore the limited predictive value of early results.
This context is particularly relevant for the Los Angeles Rams, who entered the 2026 season as one of the favorites to contend for the Super Bowl, bolstered by off-season acquisitions including Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie. Despite those enhancements, the Rams suffered a 27-7 defeat in their opener against San Francisco in Australia—their lowest-scoring game with MVP quarterback Matthew Stafford. While the Rams are unlikely to be content with merely reaching the playoffs, their slow start does not necessarily signal championship failure.
Historically, championship teams have been more likely to open with victories; only a dozen Super Bowl winners since the league’s modern era began have lost their season openers. Of those, Seattle was the third such team in the past six seasons, following Tampa Bay in 2020 and Kansas City in 2023. However, it is rare for eventual champions to start with a lopsided loss. The New England Patriots in 2003 are the only team among them to lose their opener by 20 points or more, having been shut out 31-0 by Buffalo before launching a dominant run to two consecutive Super Bowl titles.
In sum, while Week 1 results can attract immediate attention and speculation, the league’s recent history advises caution against drawing definitive conclusions too soon in the season.