The United States and Turkey are set to face off Thursday night in the final Group D match of the 2026 World Cup at a stage where their stakes differ significantly. The U.S. has already secured the top spot in the group and confirmed its position in the round of 32, while Turkey has been eliminated after losses in their first two games. With Turkey playing purely for pride, the match is expected to have a more relaxed tone than typical World Cup fixtures.

Odds currently favor the United States, listed at -115 in the three-way moneyline, whereas Turkey is considered a long shot at +260, with a draw priced at +310. This reflects a shift from pre-tournament expectations, where Turkey was viewed as the second favorite in the group, close behind the U.S.

United States head coach Mauricio Pochettino is anticipated to rotate his squad to rest key starters ahead of the knockout round. However, the lineup will still feature several attacking threats, including Gio Reyna, Tim Weah, and Brenden Aaronson, who are all expected to see substantial playing time.

Turkey’s performance has been underwhelming so far, having failed to score despite producing an expected goals (xG) value of 3.53 across their two matches. This discrepancy suggests a degree of bad luck or inefficiency in front of goal. With less pressure and nothing to lose, both teams are likely to adopt a freer, more open style of play.

Analysts anticipate a high-scoring encounter with numerous offensive opportunities. The environment suggests the match could be entertaining, as both teams seek to make an impact despite their contrasting situations in the tournament.